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Featured Grim Battleground Polls for Trump Supporters

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by InTheLight, Jun 29, 2016.

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  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    So Georgia is in play.

    Historical results in Georgia

    ............Rep. Dem.
    2012....53.3%...45.5%
    2008....53.2%...47.0%
    2004....58.0%...41.4%
    2000....54.7%...43.0%
    1996....47.0%...45.8%
    -------------------

    A new poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received a bump after the Democratic National Convention and is now tied with Republican candidate Donald Trump in Georgia.

    The exclusive Channel 2 Action News poll conducted by Landmark/Rosetta Stone polled nearly 800 likely Georgia voters. The poll, conducted over the weekend, found Trump and Clinton deadlocked with 45 percent of the vote.

    http://www.wsbtv.com/web/wsbtv/news...p-deadlocked-in-latest-georgia-poll/415167092
     
    #41 InTheLight, Aug 1, 2016
  2. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    #42 InTheLight, Aug 3, 2016
  3. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump appears to be facing an insurmountable wall among Latino voters in the key swing state of Florida: only 12.9% support among Hispanic voters, according to a new survey.

    In 2008 John McCain won 42% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, compared to 31% nationwide. Four years later, Mitt Romney got 39% of the Latino vote in Florida, compared to 27% nationally, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

    http://www.univision.com/univision-...s-trump-has-a-big-hispanic-problem-in-florida

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
     
    #43 InTheLight, Aug 4, 2016
  4. Crabtownboy

    Crabtownboy Well-Known Member
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    #44 Crabtownboy, Aug 4, 2016
  5. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    According to a new WBUR poll of New Hampshire voters, Hillary Clinton is enjoying a dramatic post-convention bump and now leads Donald Trump by 15 points. Our poll also shows Democrat Maggie Hassan with a big advantage in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

    Our new poll (topline, crosstabs) of 609 likely New Hampshire voters, conducted July 29 through Aug. 1, shows Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent. When Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are omitted, Clinton's 15-point lead swells to 17 points.

    http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll
     
    #45 InTheLight, Aug 4, 2016
  6. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    #46 777, Aug 8, 2016
  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    That's an irresponsible poll. Traditionally, there are slightly more people that identify as Democrats vs. Republicans, perhaps 3% to 5% more depending on what year you look at, but this "poll" gives the Democrats a 9% advantage? !!

    It's sad that every time a poll comes out one must click on the link for "methodology" and read the fine print to determine if the data is worthless or not.
     
    #47 InTheLight, Aug 8, 2016
  8. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    8/12/16

    The latest NBC/WSJ Marist polls

    Florida
    Clinton 44%
    Trump 39%

    North Carolina
    Clinton 48%
    Trump 39%

    Virginia
    Clinton 46%
    Trump 33%

    Colorado
    Clinton 46%
    Trump 32%

    If Clinton can manage to get South Carolina, unthinkable in most years (last time it went Democrat was 1976 and Trump is leading there by only 2 points, with a 2.7% margin of error), Clinton would have built a wall of blue states up and down the entire eastern seaboard.
     
    #48 InTheLight, Aug 12, 2016
  9. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    Garbage methodology, asking for the "youngest male" in the house alone will give you scads of millennial liberals and single moms. Other problems, the live interviews, the "press `2 for Spanish" (will cause many to just hang up at the sound of that), the long polling period, the sketchy weighting, etc. I think she is ahead in Colorado and Virginia, however.


    that one was for Florida but they're all the same by them. Looks awfully contorted, and it's getting to be time to switch off to likely voters.

    I'd take the PPP one in SC with a grain a salt, too, the state Democratic Party sponsored it:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clintontrump-race-tight-in-south-carolina.html

    You get what you pay for, and Hillary's people shouldn't waste their time on SC.
     
    #49 777, Aug 12, 2016
  10. The American Dream

    The American Dream Member
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    This thread is as meaningless as Hillary's honesty and trust. She is nothing but a common criminal. It is 88 days until the election and lots can happen, like exposing Hillary for the murderer and traitor she is. On the eve of the 1980 election, Carter and Reagan were tied.

    So ITL, are you posting all of these threads to ensure we elect the first known felon President?
     
    #50 The American Dream, Aug 12, 2016
  11. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    [​IMG]

    Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo
     
    #51 InTheLight, Aug 14, 2016
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Recent poll of Virginia. This graphic shows that Trump is falling far behind Romney's numbers in 2012 on the same demographics. For example, where Romney had a 24 point lead over Obama among whites, Trump only has an 8 point lead over Clinton with whites. Where Obama led Romney by 9 points among women, Clinton leads Trump by 25 points among women.

    But here is the death knell. Among independents, Romney led Obama by 11 points; but Clinton leads Trump by 13 points. That is a 24 point swing.

    Trump VA Poll.JPG
     
    #52 InTheLight, Aug 16, 2016
  13. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    New Monmouth poll out today from Florida, and it is not good news for Trump supporters. Clinton leads Trump by 9 points in a four-way race.

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 39%
    Johnson 6%
    Stein 1%
    Undecided 5%

    This is a poll of likely voters, not merely registered voters, with more Republicans than Democrats. Here are the demographics:

    Monmouth florida poll Aug 16.JPG

    http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp
     
    #53 InTheLight, Aug 16, 2016
  14. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    The problems with the Florida one - look at the MoE under party ID - it's over 8%. And the poll is really a Rubio scenario, the headline reads:

    Clinton Leads for Prez, Rubio Leads for Senate
    Tuesday, August 16, 2016
    Rubio reelection bid seen as driven by ambition over public service

    Nice slap at Marco. In the other one, well, it's a WaPo article and the "analysis" is partisan beyond reason:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...0e1540-6307-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html

    And then the internals:

    31/21/37 D/R/I but their own precious 2012 exit poll gave a 39/32/29 split:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/#Virginia

    I don't care what these push polls say, Hillary probably win there by five or so points, thanks to Tim Kaine, and Trump will win in Indiana, thanks to Pence. Swing states no more.
     
    #54 777, Aug 16, 2016
  15. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Latest Real Clear Politics Poll Averages, Trump vs. Clinton (2 way race)

    Colorado.....Clinton +1.8%
    Florida........Clinton +2.9%
    Michigan.....Clinton +5.3%
    New Hamp..Clinton +6.3%
    N. Carolina..Clinton +0.2% (Romney won in 2012)
    Ohio...........Trump +3.4% (Obama won in 2012)
    Pennsyl......Clinton +3.2%
    Virginia.......Clinton +7.0%
    Wisconsin...Clinton +4.7%
     
    #55 InTheLight, Oct 3, 2016
  16. Squire Robertsson

    Squire Robertsson Administrator
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    Except for Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and possibly Wisconsin, the numbers look to be within the margin of error. Neither side should count their chickens.
     
    #56 Squire Robertsson, Oct 3, 2016
  17. Zaac

    Zaac Well-Known Member

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    Good. We deserve her for turning our backs on God and supporting two folks who reject Christ and then have the audacity to talk about the country going into the abyss.

    I hope her numbers continue to go up and that it brings unrepentant supporters of that wicked man to their knees in repentance.



    Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk
     
    #57 Zaac, Oct 3, 2016
  18. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    I wonder about Virginia in particular, why has all the polling of that state been so off for the last several years? On any race there.

    Does anybody know what Hillary is doing pulling out of both Ohio and Florida? Like Squire says, it's too close to call, don't see why she left Ohio, much less Florida:

    http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-b...illary-clinton-ground-game-in-florida/2295804

    I know they stopped spending big money to get rid of Rubio over there, and that made sense, they'll never unseat him but writing off Hillary's chances there makes no sense at all.
     
    #58 777, Oct 3, 2016
  19. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Arizona (!) is now a toss-up state. Here are the recent past results in AZ:

    2012 Romney 53.7%
    2008 McCain 53.6%
    2004 Bush 54.9%
    2000 Bush 51.0%

    Here is the latest poll:

    Trump vs. Clinton AZ Poll.JPG

    Margin of error is 3.6%
     
    #59 InTheLight, Oct 6, 2016
  20. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Georgia appears to have turned Blue. Last time it went Democrat was in 1992.
    ------

    It's voted Republican for nearly quarter of a century, but now it appears Donald Trump has managed to turn the state of Georgia towards Hillary Clinton.

    According to a YouGov poll, Ms Clinton leads the property tycoon with 48.3 per cent of the vote compared to his 42.4 per cent, marking the map with a faint blue.

    Her claim on Georgia shrinks the size of the Republican South and further mars Donald Trump's chances winning the White House.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-vote-first-time-not-republican-a7365036.html
     
    #60 InTheLight, Oct 17, 2016
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