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Indy/NE-- the advantage is home field

Discussion in 'Sports Forum' started by Alcott, Oct 29, 2007.

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  1. Alcott

    Alcott Well-Known Member
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    I have just done my 'short method' of points/yardage/turnovers analysis and this gives a score of NewEngland 26.6, Indianapolis 23.3. However, the difference is within home field advantage of Indy (+9.1) and the road disadvantage of NE (-7.4); giving an overall projection of Indy 27.6, NE 22.3.
     
    #1 Alcott, Oct 29, 2007
  2. webdog

    webdog Active Member
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    I hope your stats are wrong, and Indy wipes the field with NE. Belichichek was pathetic yesterday running up the score on Gibbs. No class whatsoever.
     
    #2 webdog, Oct 29, 2007
  3. Jimmy C

    Jimmy C New Member

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    Belecheat is mad at the NFL for nailing him for cheating - I look for NE to run it up again this week. Indy is an undefeated home underdog this week - unbelieveable!

    NE will go undefeated this year - esp if they start getting thier running game off the ground - who are you going to cover/leave uncovered
     
    #3 Jimmy C, Oct 29, 2007
  4. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    I doubt it. If for no other reason by games 15 & 16 it might be to NE's advantage to not risk getting a valuable player hurt.

    Plus, any team is just one significant injury away from disaster. Brady could land wrong and hurt an ankle or a knee or his right wrist or hit a helmet on his follow through and break his hand or a finger. Or other significant players can be injured in this collision sport.

    Also, in case anyone thinks that NE is a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl I have been following sports for decades I have watched as alleged unstoppable juggernauts have fallen short of the ultimate goal.
     
    #4 KenH, Oct 29, 2007
  5. Jimmy C

    Jimmy C New Member

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    Here are my thoughts on NE going undefeated

    1. Belecheat is so mad at the NFL that he will do anything he can to "stick it to em" including running up the score when ever and whereever possilbe, and going undefeated.

    2. The colts are too good and NE wants homefiled advantage throughout the playoffs. the last thing they want it to have to play for the afc championship in indy

    Here is why they wont go undefeated
    1- brady or moss get hurt - although the bigger loss by far would be brady, but moss is opening up the entire field for welker and the other receivers

    2 the colts lose two or more games allowing NE to take a game or two off at the end of the year

    I think NE does it and runs the table. Indy with thier improved D has the best chance to beat NE - but after that its OVER!
     
    #5 Jimmy C, Oct 30, 2007
  6. ccrobinson

    ccrobinson Active Member

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    Where are you getting your advantage and disadvantage numbers? I'm surprised that the road disadvantage for NE would be that high.
     
    #6 ccrobinson, Oct 31, 2007
  7. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 Active Member
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    I am for the Colts and Peyton as well as humble Christian Tony Dungy. As the Pats true colors are really beginning to show if you know what I mean!:tonofbricks:
     
    #7 JPPT1974, Oct 31, 2007
  8. Alcott

    Alcott Well-Known Member
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    NE's margin of victory is by 7.4 points less when playing on the road than when playing at home. Indy's margin of vicitory is 9.1 points more when playing at home than when playing on the road. That's 16.5 in Indy's favor, and basing the final analysis on what I have compiled in the past, it's the square root plus one tenth of this number which leads to the most accurate forecasts. Therefore, adding 4.2 points to Indy's previous total gives 27.6, and subtracting 4.2 from NE's total gives 22.4.

    Now, having let you in on just one element of my secret analytical formula, it could too easily be a blowout either way :laugh: .
     
    #8 Alcott, Nov 2, 2007
  9. ccrobinson

    ccrobinson Active Member

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    Cool. Thanks! :thumbs:
     
    #9 ccrobinson, Nov 2, 2007
  10. Alcott

    Alcott Well-Known Member
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    Manning, you ruined it and dropped the ball on me! My forecast would have been so close [27-24] if you'd taken the Colts down and across the goal line in a 10 play drive.
     
    #10 Alcott, Nov 4, 2007
  11. bobbyd

    bobbyd New Member

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    I figured the homefield advantage would be the difference...i guess not. It was every bit the slobber knocker i expected it to be though.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see them meet again in the AFC Championship in New England and the Colts pull that one out.
     
    #11 bobbyd, Nov 4, 2007
  12. Bro. Curtis

    Bro. Curtis <img src =/curtis.gif>
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    The best way to keep a team from running up a score is to play defense.

    I guess nobody remembers the Bills getting 35 points in one half to get to a super bowl. Perhaps if the Oilers weren't worried about running up the score, they could have won that game.

    The accusations of running up the score are nothing but sour grapes. Play the game better.

    The Colts fell apart with 10 minuites left to play, or perhaps they could have run up the score. The Pats got lucky, I doubt they will go undefeated, but they are a great team.
     
    #12 Bro. Curtis, Nov 5, 2007
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