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Is O-BA-MA Overpolling?

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Major B, Oct 9, 2008.

  1. Major B

    Major B <img src=/6069.jpg>

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    I have not been able to dig up the archives, since they are technically moot, but I seem to remember a pattern between O-BA-MA and Hillary, of him going into the weekend in each primary significantly ahead, then, in the last three days dropping to where he barely won or lost. Does anyone have those figures, and what can we learn from that trend?

    A political friend of mine says that if O-BA-MA goes into the final weekend at less than 10% ahead, he will lose the election.

    So, what do Ya'll think?
     
  2. Bro. Curtis

    Bro. Curtis <img src =/curtis.gif>
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    I have witnessed leftist minions being rounded up & told to spam the polls. If you can stomach the stench of the Huffington Post, & The Daily Kos.

    It's starting to dawn on them that most of America wants what's best for it. While everyone knows McCain's problems, Americans are starting to figure out the zero is not what he was presented to be.
     
  3. Dragoon68

    Dragoon68 Active Member

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    But aren't you for "change"? How could you be against "change"? Isn't "change" always good?

    No-Bama!
     
  4. rbell

    rbell Active Member

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    Well, in 30+ of the states, it's over. Face it: Alabama, Utah, Arizona, Tennessee, etc., will vote McCain. New York, California, D.C., etc., will vote Obama.

    There's about 10-15 states, "battleground" or "swing" states, that hold all the cards. Because Obama is taking such prize states as NY and CA, McCain must carry most of the swing states: Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and a few others. The other states are decided. These are the only ones that matter...and things look poorly for McCain.

    Right now, he's significantly behind in many (beyond the statistical error margin). He's losing both FL and OH. McCain cannot in any way win without both of these states. He's significantly behind where Bush was in 2000 and 2004.

    I do not want to see an Obama presidency...but barring something really weird, I don't see a way McCain can pull this one out.
     
  5. Major B

    Major B <img src=/6069.jpg>

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    If the polls are right--and that is the question--ask President Dewey
     
  6. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    Yes.

    It's called the Bradley effect.

    The only real question is...by how much?
     
  7. rbell

    rbell Active Member

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    Difference #1: Polling as a whole is more accurate in 2008 than in 1948. (1948 polls were heavily slanted toward more affluent voters)
    Difference #2: In 1948, there was a viable 3rd party candidate that took several states. Though others will get votes, no 3rd party candidate will be picking up any states this time.
    Difference #3: Truman was an incumbent president. McCain isn't.
    Difference #4: (or at least possibly) There were foreign policy issues that cropped up regarding Berlin that made folks a bit more comfortable with Truman. Two things must happen for history to repeat itself-- (1) There must be a significant foreign policy event; (2) The media must be objective enough to report it.
    Difference #5: Though there were a few pro-Dewey factions in the press (especially in the midwest), it was nowhere near the love-fest that our media has with Obama. There is little pretense of objectivity. (Doubts? See Saturday Night Live, MSNBC, CNN, and so many others). Obama should have them on his payroll. Biden definitely should.

    Those all add up to a quite different scenario than in 1948.
     
  8. Dragoon68

    Dragoon68 Active Member

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    There's no bias in the entertainment news entertainment entertainment business is there?

    There's no reason to think people actually buy the garbage they hear is there?
     
  9. saturneptune

    saturneptune New Member

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    There are 25 days left until the election. Anything can happen. A lot of the ties to Obama have not been fully explored. McCain could still win, but he is going to have a much beefed up Democratic Congress.
     
  10. JustChristian

    JustChristian New Member

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    You're reaching. In reality, polls are generally pretty much on the money.
     
  11. LeBuick

    LeBuick New Member

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    A month ago McCain was on top in the polls. I don't think the race is close t being over. Obama needs to figure out a way to close the deal and McCain needs to stop the spear tactic and push his economics plan. It is apparent on the conservatives care about the smearing but he has their votes. The rest of us want to hear about the issues.
     
  12. Major B

    Major B <img src=/6069.jpg>

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    With a 9 point difference between Zog and CNN--that is not accuracy.
     
  13. JustChristian

    JustChristian New Member

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    I'll take that bet.
     
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