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Poll: Cruz surges ahead of Trump and Carson in Iowa

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by carpro, Dec 7, 2015.

  1. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...oll-cruz-surges-ahead-of-trump-carson-in-iowa


    Poll: Cruz surges ahead of Trump and Carson in Iowa


    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has surpassed Donald Trump and Ben Carson in Iowa, a new poll finds, giving the Texas Republican his first lead of the cycle in an early voting state.

    Cruz, who has been on a sharp upward trajectory in the polls in recent weeks, takes 24 percent of support in the Hawkeye State, according to a Monmouth University survey released on Monday.

    Trump is in second place in the poll, with 19 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), at 17 percent, and Ben Carson, who suffered by far the steepest decline of any candidate, clocking in at 13 percent.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
  2. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    This poll is of "likely caucus attenders" NOT simply "likely voters". In Iowa there is a big difference.

    Some takeaways from the actual poll:

    • Evangelical voters, who make up about half of the Iowa GOP caucus electorate, back Cruz (30%) over Trump (18%), Rubio (16%), and Carson (15%).
    • Cruz also has an edge among voters who call themselves tea party supporters. He commands 36% support among this group, compared to 20% for Trump, 17% for Carson, and 11% for Rubio.
    • Trump does better with more independent-minded voters, while Rubio’s support increases among those who regularly take part in the state’s Republican primary elections.
    • About 1-in-7 voters in the poll sample are non-GOP voters who say they are likely to caucus as Republicans in February. Trump holds 30% of this group’s support, compared to 21% for Cruz, 15% for Carson, and 10% for Rubio.
    • About 7-in-10 voters in the sample, though, regularly cast GOP primary ballots. Among this more probable group of voters, Cruz (25%) and Rubio (21%) garner greater support than Trump (16%) and Carson (13%).
    “Trump will need a huge organizational effort to get independent voters to show up in a contest
    where they have historically participated in small numbers. Without this dynamic, the underlying fundamentals appear to favor Cruz and Rubio,” said Murray.

    http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/de240398-df23-47b6-8470-91977d38b749.pdf
     
  3. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    Uh huh. I consider the national polls totally useless. It will be decided state by state.
     
  4. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yep. There is a real possibility that Trump will not win a primary until Super Tuesday. He won't win Iowa, he probably won't win New Hampshire, and he won't win South Carolina. He might take Nevada, but I doubt it.

    He could take Massachusetts and Vermont on Super Tuesday, but who cares? Those are blue states through and through.
     
  5. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    The GOP bosses made a big mistake when they front-loaded all the primaries so that the contest will be over by mid-March. The bosses thought that it was being done for Jeb Bush or one of their own. They never imagined that Dr. Carson or a Cuban refugee from Batista and a Southern Baptist Cruz or a maverick populist like Trump would be factors at all. But then the GOP bosses never have had a Republican populism to factor into their equations.
     
  6. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    The primary schedule is much the same as in years past. The idea has always been to shake out a winner by the end of March.
     
  7. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    Years ago it was strung out so that every state mattered more.

    The GOP establishment lost control of the party and now they cannot control the contest with money as they have done in the past since Trump has made fools out of the media and run a cost-free campaign almost.

    From the reaction of the Democrats to Trump, Hillary must be very afraid of him. Maybe Trump should promise not to put Hillary in prison.
     
  8. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, I think the Iowa caucus would favor somebody like Cruz and he really will need to win it there. But New Hampshire will go to Trump (neighbor) or, in a big upset, Christie (his momentum needs to accelerate) and South Carolina could easily go to Trump or the most perceived "pro-military" of the lot.

    Rubio's best shot is in Florida but I think if their primary were held today, that would go to Trump as well with all those snow birds down there.
     
  9. FriendofSpurgeon

    FriendofSpurgeon Well-Known Member
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    Unless they are citizens of Florida (and registered as a the Republican), they could not vote in the Florida primary.
     
  10. FriendofSpurgeon

    FriendofSpurgeon Well-Known Member
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    Fully expect Cruz to take Iowa, with Rubio coming in behind him. Historically, conservatives have always done well there -- with Huckabee and Santorum doing well. However, that has not necessarily carried over to other states - notably New Hampshire.

    NH has an interesting primary election system - not really fully closed or fully open. Republicans can only vote in the Republican primary and Democrats can only vote in the Democratic primary, but unaffiliated voters can vote in either. As a result, the independent voters will move sway the primary to less conservative/more moderate candidates like Trump, Bush or Christie. It will be interesting to see how Rubio does here. Is he able to pick up some of the moderate vote?
     
  11. blessedwife318

    blessedwife318 Well-Known Member
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    Cruz has been playing the long game, and it just might work. I'm firmly in the Cruz camp, I think he is just what this country needs after 8 years of Obama. I'm still convinced that Trump is a trojan horse, who's whole purpose is to elect Clinton, but time will tell. I've already decided that if Trump does manage to win the nomination I will do something I have never done before, write in a candidate, because I will never vote for Trump.
     
  12. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Totally agree with you!
     
  13. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    I agree I am also in the Cruz camp.

    I think Trump is sincere he is just doing things the best he knows how. If he were to actually be nominated I would vote for him over Hillary any day. I hope it does not come to that.
     
  14. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    I could vote for Cruz and Rubio, for sure, and probably would vote for Christie. If Huckabee, Santorum, and Fiorina had a legitimate shot, I could vote for them too.


    If conservatives continue to vote for any Republican the GOP puts up there, we will continue to get lousy candidates and continue to lose. I learned my lesson with Romney.

    There is no way Trump could win. The attack ads write themselves. Democrats and independents that haven't voted in years will turn out in droves to vote against him.

    Perhaps if he were to bribe people he might win. An idea by Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, is that Trump could announce a week before the election that if he wins he will shave his head bald. This is the sort of stunt that I wouldn't put beneath him.
     
  15. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    Not to worry.

    Trump will not be the republican nominee.
     
  16. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    If Rubio, Fiorina, or Christie we the nominee I would not vote. I am just not going to vote for another establishment candidate. I did not vote for McCain or Romney. Huckabee, Santorum, or Cruz. Especially Cruz for me.




    I agree with this which is why I would not vote for Rubio, Fiorina, or Christie.

    I disagree, I think the current mood of the country is that they are tired of the status quo that only comes from life long politicians. That would send Trump to the Whitehouse.
     
    #16 Revmitchell, Dec 8, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2015
  17. blessedwife318

    blessedwife318 Well-Known Member
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    That actually is not my concern, I think as trojan horse that I think he is the bigger worry is him running as an independent thus guaranteeing a Democrat victory.
     
  18. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    THAT is a much bigger concern.
     
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