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The electoral “college” crowd: Clinton gaining a huge edge with educated white voters

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Crabtownboy, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. Crabtownboy

    Crabtownboy Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Feb 12, 2008
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    The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein has been calling this the “class inversion” in which the two parties have exchanged the two white voting factions. He describes it this way:

    This generation-long resorting has profoundly reshaped the balance of power both between and within the two parties. Combined with the growth in the minority population, the Democrats’ improving position among college-educated whites has allowed them to win the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections, despite consistently large deficits among the non-college white voters who constituted the bedrock of their coalition from Franklin Roosevelt through Jimmy Carter. Conversely, the Democratic decline among blue-collar whites has been key to the recent Republican dominance in the House of Representatives.

    He points out that the primary electorates of the two parties have also undergone the same change which explains why Trump’s crude right-wing populism has been successful and why Clinton’s multi-cultural, college educated and older voter coalition won her the Democratic nomination. Trump carried 47% of the Republican white working class and only 35% of college-educated voters. Clinton won college-educated whites in 17 of the 26 states with exit polls and lost roughly the same numbers of the white working class. According to Brownstein, with Trump’s base of blue-collar white men and Clinton’s base of college-educated white women (as well as people of color) these two candidates are uniquely positioned to finally complete this class inversion.

    This is a very bad sign for Trump. First, he has not a snowball’s chance in hell of capturing more than a handful of minorities to make up for the loss of college-educated whites. His racism, religious intolerance and xenophobia almost guarantee that the Democrats will maintain, and probably expand, on their dominance among this growing group of Americans.

    All classes of white voters are shrinking as a percentage of the electorate, but within that demographic the number of college-educated whites, especially college educated women, is expanding. White men without a college degree constituted 28 percent of all voters in 2004 and by 2012 they were just 17%. Meanwhile,college-educated white women were just 11 percent of the vote when Reagan was re-elected in 84 and had grown to 19 percent in 2012. There are more of them than blue-collar white men. Meanwhile, non-college-educated whites have shrunk from 65 percent of the white electorate when Reagan was sworn in to 36 percent in 2012


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