Top Scientist Cools On Global-warming Storms

Revmitchell · May 19, 2008

May 19, 2008 -- WASHINGTON - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, according to a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position on the subject has shifted.

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rbell · May 19, 2008

It almost gets funny to see how some scientists have to tie their logic & common sense into Gordian knots...

Some say, "the increase in hurricanes is due to global warming."
Others say, "the decrease in number, but increase in intensity, is due to global warming."

Still others say, "Global warming is a fact, but it has no effect on hurricane numbers or intensity."

For a group whose careers and pursuits are based on verifiable, repeatable, measurable facts.....there sure is a lot of guessing, supposition, and suspension of logic going on.

Crabtownboy · May 19, 2008

Revmitchell said:

May 19, 2008 -- WASHINGTON - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, according to a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position on the subject has shifted.

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Below is an abstract of the letter. It is a letter not an article. I would like to read the entire letter, but to do so a person has to subscribe at $98.00 a year. Don't think I'll do that. Note that he says rainfall rates increase, so that does not rule out major flooding and flood damage, but it would reduce damage from winds if the model is correct ... and it is a model.

Nature Geoscience
Published online: 18 May 2008 | doi:10.1038/ngeo202

Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Gabriel A. Vecchi & Isaac M. Held

Increasing sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and measures of Atlantic hurricane activity have been reported to be strongly correlated since at least 1950 (refs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5), raising concerns that future greenhouse-gas-induced warming6 could lead to pronounced increases in hurricane activity. Models that explicitly simulate hurricanes are needed to study the influence of warming ocean temperatures on Atlantic hurricane activity, complementing empirical approaches. Our regional climate model of the Atlantic basin reproduces the observed rise in hurricane counts between 1980 and 2006, along with much of the interannual variability, when forced with observed sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions7. Here we assess, in our model system7, the changes in large-scale climate that are projected to occur by the end of the twenty-first century by an ensemble of global climate models8, and find that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies are reduced. At the same time, near-storm rainfall rates increase substantially. Our results do not support the notion of large increasing trends in either tropical storm or hurricane frequency driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations.
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Top Scientist Cools On Global-warming Storms

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