Can Hillary carry Florida?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by church mouse guy, Apr 29, 2015.

  1. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy
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    Hillary's position on Cuba is more or less the same as Obama's. She discussed that in her book Hard Choices, according to the Washington Post.

    Someone polled about 350 people and concluded that the younger generation in Florida favors the Obama policy. However, Cuban dissidents are reporting that the Cuban community prefers the status quo policy overwhelmingly because of the deaths of Floridians caused by Cubans, among other reasons.

    At the end of this post, I will quote Hillary, but first some short introductory points.

    1. The purpose of the Cuban embargo was not regime change but confinement of the Cuban military excursions into other countries. This was made clear by Dean Rusk, Secretary of State for then President John F. Kennedy, at an Organization of American States meeting.

    2. George W. Bush effectively ended the embargo. Cuba can buy whatever she wants as long as she pays cash. The Castros are reportedly billionaires.

    3. The average Cuban makes $20 per month. Cuba would be a source of cheap labor for American businesses.

    4. Credit should not be extended to Cuba as she has defaulted on every singe loan ever made. The American taxpayer is going to get stuck with the bill and big companies such as Cargill, for example, are going to bank the taxpayers' money.

    5. The Cuban vote can determine the outcome of an election in Florida.

    6. In 2008 Obama supported the embargo, etc., and in 2012 was silent on the issue, so again he appears to be reaching for a legacy.

    7. North Korea and Cuba are much the same.

    Here is what Hillary wrote:

    Near the end of our tenure, I recommended to President Obama that he take another look at the embargo. It wasn’t achieving its goals, and it was holding back our broader agenda across Latin America. After twenty years of observing and dealing with the U.S.-Cuba relationship, I thought we should shift the onus onto the Castros to explain why they remained undemocratic and abusive.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...lary-clinton-versus-jeb-bush-and-marco-rubio/
     
  2. Zaac

    Zaac
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    Yes she can. People like Presidents who try to help. That's not the MO of the GOP, so she has a very good chance of winning Florida.
     
  3. OldRegular

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    Hillary has mended up some as she ages but Florida is an awful big state. i doubt she can carry it!
     
  4. Tom Bryant

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    Yes, she could win florida. The Cuba issue is not as big with younger Cubans as with older Cubans. Her problems will be that she and President Clinton have been helping themselves through their foundation.

    Yes, the GOP MO is not to help those who should and could be helping themselves.
     
  5. Zaac

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    Hard to do when the GOP is stacking the deck against them helping themselves.
     
  6. Tom Bryant

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    In terms of helping themselves, you're thinking about the Clintons.
     
  7. revmwc

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    She has to get the Democratic nomination and it is looking like she won't. Too many questions about her charity and the mis-appropiation of funds that she can't or won't answer. She already had one of her biggest millionaire financial supports drop out on her,. It will be hard to win the nomination without funding.
     
  8. Zaac

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    Nope. The folks who will vote for her.
     
  9. Tom Bryant

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    Why? Is she planning on paying them out of the Clinton Foundation?
     
  10. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy
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    Yes, that was the point of the poll, which was done without specifying that the person being questioned was a registered voter. People who may have recently arrive from Cuba or people who don't vote anyway may favor the notion that taxpayers should send a gift to the Castros, etc. However, Cuban dissidents say that the overwhelming majority of Cubans in Florida are opposed to the Obama/Clinton plan and that their votes went for Rick Scott, who won.

    Dissidents point out that the Castros murdered 4 Floridians in the 1996 shoot down of the Brothers to the Rescue.

    Do you think that Hillary could win the White House if she loses Florida after advocating special gifts for the Castros?
     
  11. Tom Bryant

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    The problem with the dissidents is that there are few of them left. And nothing short of bringing on a complete change of gov't in Cuba will satisfy them. I agree in my head with that sentiment. I know Cubans who have lost loved ones to the Beard and his brother. But there will be no regime change in Cuba.

    I am not sure that an overwhelming number of Cubans voted for Rick Scott. I haven't looked at any polling numbers.
     
  12. church mouse guy

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    Thank you so much for your time and information! I am grateful to you for providing us with a local viewpoint.

    My questions stems from listening to blogradio with Silvio Canto on the topic of Florida in 2016 in a discussion with dissident Jorge Ponce. Unfortunately I am headed to the night shift at work and I don't have the exact spot in the broadcast that pertains to Florida. Romney lost Florida by 27,000 votes I think.

    [​IMG]

    Silvio Canto

    As for regime change, I think that we are hoping that after 56 years of Stalinist government and human rights abuse and crimes against humanity that the death of the Castros will free Cuba.

    Here is the link to the podcast and I will try to get a time point for you tomorrow.

    But thank you so much for your input and I look forward to hearing from you again on this sorrowful subject:

    http://cantotalk.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-latest-on-us-cuba-talks-with-jorge.html
     
  13. righteousdude2

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    I dont' know if she can pull it off ....... that's a lot of dirt, brick and mortar! Then there are all the people, and that weight is massive in and of itself! It doesn't seem possible, not even for Superman! :smilewinkgrin: :laugh:
     
  14. Darrell C

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    Sorry, resisted as long as I could, no, Hilary cannot carry Florida!

    Not even Arnie could do that...


    God bless.
     
  15. Jkdbuck76

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    Can Hillary protect an Embassy in Libya?

    Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk
     
  16. FriendofSpurgeon

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    Politically, Florida is an interesting state. Very purple. Voted for Scott twice. Voted for Obama twice. One Republican Senator. One Democrat Senator. However, legislature is overwhelmingly Republican.

    Politically, Florida is several states.

    North Florida (lower Alabama and lower Georgia), is decidedly more Republican. The exception is Tallahassee, which is the capital and the home to several universities. The other exception is Jacksonville, primarily due to its large African American community. See below regarding the I-4 corridor.

    South Florida (except Miami) is overwhelmingly Democrat. A lot of transplants. Think Jerry Seinfeld's parents. Home of Debbie Wasserman Shultz.

    Miami tends to vote Republican, primarily due to the Cubans, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans who have escaped Communism in their own country. While the Cuban vote will help the Republican candidate (especially if it's Marco or Jeb), it cannot carry the entire state.

    SW Florida - Naples to Sarasota - tends to be a very Republican. Very white.

    I-4 corridor - Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville. This is where elections are won and lost in Florida. More middle class than the rest of the state. Three major cities - plus a lot of suburbia and soccer moms.

    Bottom line, can Hillary win in Florida? Absolutely. Again, I think Jeb or Marco would give her the best challenge in the state.
     
  17. church mouse guy

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    A friend of mine in Florida echoes the sentiment, FriendofSpurgeon, that Jeb and Marco are very popular in Florida. Romney only lost by 27,000 votes according to Silvio Canto, linked above. Of course, Mormons have a very large cattle ranch in Florida so they had serious financial interests to defend. But thanks for the very good analysis of the state geography and voting patterns! 2016 just might be a good year for the GOP.
     

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