Can Trump Turn the Election Around in 75 Days?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by The American Dream, Aug 24, 2016.

  1. The American Dream

    The American Dream
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    As we all know, a President is elected by the Electoral College, not popular vote. Whether or not anyone likes that is a subject for another thread. Each state casts its electoral votes based on the popular vote of winner takes all, except for Maine and Nebraska. In my state for example, Kentucky will cast its eight electoral votes for Donald Trump, as I doubt Hillary will break the 30% mark. But Kentucky does not win Presidential elections. The Democrats have a lock on California and New York, plus most of the Northeast and the rest of the West Coast. Hillary has managed to make inroads into the South in states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Georgia.

    A small group of states will make the difference. Mostly, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. Had Trumps campaign gone better to date, he actually had a shot at Michigan, and some say New York, which I never believed.

    There are two areas that concern me greatly. If Hillary wins, she will pick the next several Supreme Court Justices. Also a Hillary landslide puts the House and Senate in jeopardy, especially the Senate.

    Here is the latest electoral college projection from 538, a very good poll that has a great past record.
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
     
  2. Salty

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    Looks like a very good resource!

    It predicts that Johnson will receive 8+ % of the vote.
    I doubt he will exceed 5%
     
  3. StefanM

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    Anything could happen between now and then, but if we don't have any major developments, I don't see a path for Trump.

    Whether the Democrats will take the Senate is another question, but it's one that wouldn't have even seemed worth asking not to long ago.
     
  4. blessedwife318

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    You have to give Trump credit on this one. He promised to put new states into play and he has done just that. Who says politicians never keep their promises. Just one problem, the states that he put into play were solid Red states. I do not think there is any path to victory for Trump at this point, the electoral map favors Clinton, so now the important focus is the down ballot races.

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
     
  5. StefanM

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    I tend to agree. The generic electoral map favors Democrats anyway. Republicans have to win more electoral votes from swing states than Democrats have to win.

    Things could change, but I'm not optimistic.
     
  6. carpro

    carpro
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    He's already turned it around. It's too close to call right now.
     
  7. blessedwife318

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    No its really not, but I know nothing will convince Trump supporters of that fact. With solid and leaning states Clinton is looking at winning 272 electoral votes before you even throw in the swing states. That is not a too close to call race.

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  8. StefanM

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    That depends on which polls you trust. Taking an overall look, he hasn't yet closed the gap. He may do that soon (I think his campaign manager is the best he's had yet), but as of now, he's just not there yet.
     
  9. carpro

    carpro
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    Yes , it is.
     
  10. StefanM

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    I'm a recent Trump (mostly) supporter, but I know that he's in a bad spot. He needs to turn this around yesterday.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Benjamin

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    Nothing will convince Hillary supporters and #NeverTrump/Closet Hillary Supporters that Trump can win. Many Dems/Closet Dems will probably not even bother to vote whereas those who are truly fed up with the Clinton Regime will be out to make a serious statement! I kind of like the idea of the people being told Trump CAN'T win by the Manipulating Media and Pollers, Establishment Elitists and the Arrogant Dems because it will be fun to be part of the BIG surprise coming for them. Hope they keep up the good work...
     
  12. StefanM

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    I have about 1 3/4 feet in the Trump camp, and I think he CAN win. I just think it's going to very hard for him to win. Maybe another Clinton scandal will break. You know they have plenty in the closet.
     
  13. Benjamin

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    I expect the people know full well the truth of the queen of scandals already and many are just being silent about it while waiting to be part of the BIG turn around which will come on November 8th.
     
  14. StefanM

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    I hope you're right.
     
  15. Crabtownboy

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    That is not the problem. They know about the scandals. The problem is that Trump has just as many and comes across as a chronic liar and a chronic flip-flopper ... a totally dishonest man. Therein lies the big problem for the GOP.
     
    • Disagree Disagree x 2
  16. Benjamin

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    Nah, I think most people understand this attempt of Tu Quoque in one form or another and aren't going to for all for it.
     
  17. Salty

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    Sounds like a typical politician
     
  18. carpro

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    What a crock.
     

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