It's 1980 Again

Discussion in 'Politics' started by saturneptune, Nov 6, 2012.

  1. saturneptune

    saturneptune
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    Gallup final poll on Monday has Romney leading 50-49 of likely voters. That is a slight change from a few days before. The election is still fluid at this late hour back towards Romney. It it possible that Obama's electoral lock is crumbling right before our eyes? If Romney carries all the swing states and PA, he could break 300 EVs. Remember the call of a winner in 1980 was before 9 pm when Reagan crushed Carter. Michigan could further up the EV count.

    Aside from the satisfaction of a new President, wouldn't it be great to see egg in the face of all the pollsters. Can you imagine them trying to explain that Wednesday morning?

    Here is the 1980 map.

    [​IMG]

    To be totally fair, there is no way Romney will match Reagan. Notice Reagan carried almost the entire Northeast. That is not going to happen. Also, Reagan took the West Coast.

    All I am saying is that Romney could break 300 based on the Midwest. Aaron predicts a Romney landslide.

    George Will predicts a Romney landslide, with an added bonus, Minnesota. (along with Michael Barone)

    http://winteryknight.wordpress.com/...one-predict-landslide-victory-for-romneyryan/

    Dick Morris also predicts a landslide.

    http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20121101-NEWS-121109957

    Finally, to make this at least more like 1980, here is an editorial stating New York, Conneticut, and New Jersey are in play.

    http://lubbockonline.com/interact/b...omney-win-new-york-new-jersey-and-connecticut

    The most likely state for Romney to pick off on the West Coast is Oregon. The call could be early, but the margin will not be like 1980.
     
    #1 saturneptune, Nov 6, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 6, 2012
  2. Arbo

    Arbo
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    It's 1980 Again

    I'll be the first to admit it if I'm wrong, but I've not been able to shake the feeling for the last few months that history might repeat itself. 2012 isn't 1980, but there are too many similarities...
     
  3. saturneptune

    saturneptune
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    In a sense you are correct. 1980 was long ago. Voters were disguisted with Carter for three basic reasons. One was the Iranian hostages, two was the 15% home interest rates, and three, the general sense that Carter did not know how to govern. This year people are disguisted with Obama over moral issues (abortion and gay rights), government deficits and out of control spending, the Libya affair, and too much governmental interferance in our lives.

    One thing to remember, the population in general was much more conservative in 1980 than today.
     
  4. Crabtownboy

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    Folks, it is not 1980 again and never will be.

    Here is George Will's last comment in his last editorial before the election:

     
  5. InTheLight

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    Trust me, Minnesota going to Romney is very unlikely. Minnesota hasn't gone Republican since Nixon in 1972. Before that it was Eisenhower, and before that it was Hoover. That's voting R only 3 times out of the last 20 elections.

    That said, because both of the constitutional amendment issues--marriage and photo ID--are Republican issues and require a YES vote (a non-vote = a NO) pollsters are expecting a high turnout of Republicans. My youngest son's school is a polling place and for the first time I can remember they canceled classes figuring the high number of voters would be too much of a disruption.
     
  6. Andy T.

    Andy T.
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    George Will is predicting a landslide? Really? That makes me perk up a bit, because Will is a measured thinker, not one to give in to hyperbole.

    Or is he just predicting a Romney win? Big difference.

    Peggy Noonan is also predicting a Romney win, but a close one. Same with Karl Rove.
     

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