My Prediction for the 2004 election

Discussion in 'Free-For-All Archives' started by Johnv, Oct 29, 2004.

  1. Johnv

    Johnv
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    Bush will win 51% of the popular vote. Kerry will receive 48%.

    Bush will receive slightly less than 2/3 of the electoral vote.

    In my own state (CA) Kerry will win by 2% over Bush. In my county (OC), Bush will win by 10% over Kerry.

    Also in CA:

    Prop 64 will win (shakedown lawsuit prevention)
    Prop 66 will lose (redefines 3 strikes law)
    Prop 67 will ose (phone tax)
    Prop 68 will lose (Tribal Gaming Amendment)
    Prop 69 will win (DNA Database for convicted felons)
    Prop 70 will lose (Tribal Gaming contract)
     
  2. Kiffin

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    Visit Horserace.MSNBC.COM and they have a map of the USA where you can play strategist.

    I came up with Electorial count

    Bush 279
    Kerry 259

    For Bush I see the strategy for victory is to win the South, West and Ohio, New Mexico are musts and he will pull a razor thin victory

    BUT if Kerry

    could pick off Ohio the results are
    Bush 259
    Kerry 279

    could pick off Florida the results are
    Bush 252
    Kerry 286


    For Kerry to win he must carry the East and West coast, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa and and Pennsylania and pickoff either Florida or Ohio from Bush


    I think Tuesday night will be a long fun night for political junkies. I think Bush has the edge but if he stumbles in Florida or Ohio Kerry could pull a upset win.
     
  3. Walguy

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    I have no doubt Bush will get more legitimate votes in enough states to win a second term, but the Democrats are going all out with the vote fraud this time, and that could decide the election. Dems are always willing enough to commit vote fraud anyway, but in their fantasy world Bush stole the 2000 election, so this time it's truly anything goes. The latest Wisconsin example comes from Milwaukee, where this week Republicans brought to the attention of the Election Commission 5000 fraudulent registrations, most of them done this year. They provided pictures showing that the addresses listed in these registrations do not exist, making them invalid. However, the Commission voted 3-0 not to purge these registrations. No prizes for guessing which political party the 3 Commissioners and the Mayor who appointed them belong to. On election day people are going to show up at the polls, give these fake addresses, be given ballots and be allowed to vote. In many cases I'm sure people will spend the entire day going from one polling place to another, voting as many different 'people' from many different non-existent addresses. This is the kind of thing Bush in particular and the Republicans in general are up against this time around. In some Democrat controlled cities there are significantly more registered 'voters' than the entire adult population of the city. In many cities next Tusday, significant numbers of individual Democrats will be voting often. I can only hope that enough people who say they are planning to vote for Kerry will find that when it comes to actually casting the vote, they are not willing to trust the security of themselves, their country and their children to someone who is so anti-military and so blame-America-first. Perhaps Kerry's willingness this week to immediately and unquestioningly take the word of the UN and the New York Times in the matter of the 'missing' weapons will finally help some people realize the kind of person Kerry really is, and where he really comes from in terms of his attitude toward his own country's military.
     
  4. church mouse guy

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    Indianapolis is another city with a crooked Democrat machine running the city's politics. Old ladies vote in multiple precincts, the dead are still voted, people who have retired to Arizona still vote absentee, etc.

    John V, you are correct that Bush will win along the lines that you suggest. However, you did not mention what will happen to the proposition of spending 3 billion plus 3 billion interest California money on embryonic stem cell research--something that so far has only caused tumors and seizures. Since when did states fund medical research?
     
  5. Pennsylvania Jim

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    Overall, the GOP message is a better one. And, there are millions who actually still think the GOP politicians believe it. JohnV's predictions may be close.
     
  6. bb_baptist

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    My prediction:

    EV: Bush 280, Kerry 258

    Popular vote: Bush 49.5%, Kerry 48.5%, Third Parties 2%
     
  7. Jeff Weaver

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    Kerry 277
    Bush 261
     
  8. church mouse guy

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    I predict that Peroutka will get less than the 98,000 votes polled by the Constitution Party last time. His opposition to the war against terror coupled with his sour attacks on Republicans will make the members of his own party realize that a vote for Peroutka is really a vote for Kerry.
     
  9. Gup20

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    I personally think that Bush will win my a landslide victory. There are 72 million Pentecostal voters in the USA, and last time, 15 million of them voted. I think a SIGNIFICANT portion of them will get out and vote - the ones who listen to the Lord will be voting for Bush, and therefore a landslide victory.
     
  10. john6:63

    john6:63
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    CMG, I am new to Indiana and I have heard that the Republicans have carried the state since the 40's, but why has Indiana had a Democratic Governor since '89?
     
  11. Pennsylvania Jim

    Pennsylvania Jim
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    [​IMG] [​IMG] Good one, Gup.
     
  12. leesw

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    At the MSNBC pickem' poll, I picked Bush barely....at Bush, 283 and Kerry 255.

    That hinges on Florida. If Kerry wins Florida, he'll win 282 to 256 (God forbid).

    Unless Bush gets Wisconsin and Iowa, then he eeks out a 273 to 265 win.

    Democrats are commiting voter fraud and that is very disturbing.

    Lee

    PS--Then again, it could be Bush 277 to Kerry 261 if Bush wins N.H.
     
  13. church mouse guy

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    CMG, I am new to Indiana and I have heard that the Republicans have carried the state since the 40's, but why has Indiana had a Democratic Governor since '89? </font>[/QUOTE]Here is the short answer. Doc Bowen won for eight years. He was followed by the late Gov. Orr for another eight years. Then the GOP candidate was former Lt. Gov. John Mutz. The Dems ran Evan Bayh, who won against Mutz. Bayh had eight years and then his Lt. Gov. the late Frank O'Bannon had seven years. Gov. Kernan took over from O'Bannon about a year ago.

    Winning the Presidential race in Indiana does not translate to winning the Statehouse. Doc Bowen was very popular but he is very elderly now. Actually, LBJ carried Indiana against Goldwater in 1964. Indiana usually is the first state to be declared for the Republican for President. About 6:15 PM tomorrow, Indiana will be counted for Bush!

    That's it.
     
  14. The Galatian

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    I predict that another liberal will win. We will see more increases in federal power and a corresponding decrease in the power of states and individual citizens.

    Abortion will continue, as the elected president will have pledged not to select only pro-live nominees as judges.

    How do I know this? Because this is true of the two major candidates.

    whoopee.
     
  15. Maverick

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    The Amish voting might just give Bush PA, which would rock Kerry's world.
     
  16. Johnv

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    You're referring to CA Prop 71, I believe, which would provide for the state to provide for 3bil funding over 10 years (not immediately). But it's a little more than that. Any private that makes a research breakthrough in the field must list the State of CA as a contributor to the research. If the breakthrough is patented, CA must be listed on the patent, and, as such, be entitled to royalties off the patent. Private research firms would not be able to take government funds, and then make money off of the research without being beholden to the benefactors.

    While the proposition is worded well, there is already ample funding from the private sector for stem cell research, and since it will result in additional tax, and since most californians steer shy of adding tothe state budget, I believe that this proposition will fail.
     
  17. Gup20

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    I thought of you when I wrote it ;)

    But really - how many hours have you spent praying and listening to God on whom to vote for? I have spent many - and I have my answer.

    I guess I can't speak to what God might tell others... but I know what He told me.
     
  18. Pennsylvania Jim

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    The only fool-proof prediction I've seen as of now.
     
  19. JGrubbs

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    I just downloaded the number of registered Constitution Party voters in Florida for both 2000 and 2004 from the Division of Elections office. There has been a 522% increase in the number of registered Constitution Party voters over the last four years.
     
  20. Debby in Philly

    Debby in Philly
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    My prediction is that we won't know who won until Christmas, or maybe next year.
     

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