November Prediction

Discussion in 'Politics' started by 12strings, Apr 19, 2012.

  1. 12strings

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    (I'll try to search for this thread later to see If I was right)

    PREDICTION:

    Romney will select someone more conservative than himself in an attempt to win Evangelicals. Most Republicans will vote for Romney. Most Democrats will vote for Obama.

    The Obama Administration will do their best to time economic upturns with next fall. As such, some of the negative sentiment will subside.

    Media will act suspensful durring the election, giving reasons why it could go etiher way, but Obama will win big, similar to his win over McCain.
     
  2. saturneptune

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    This post is based on just my opinion about how people vote, and not who I am for or against, especially since I would vote for either. I did vote for McCain, but decided that was it for my string of liberal Republicans.

    I think Obama will win bigger than in the 2008 election, both in the electoral college and popular vote. First of all, in the primaries that Romney has won, Obama will carry those states. In the states that either Santorum or Gingrich won, I believe that Romney will win some and Obama will win some. If one takes Mississippi for example, 38% of the voters are black. Of the white voters, about 15% will vote Democratic. The rest are strong Christian, evangelical voters, and many do not like Romney in any shape, form or fashion. It is a real dilemna for these voters. Is it better to vote for the likes of Romney, or do I stand up for what I believe and vote for a third party or stay home? It is impossible to predict the outcome in Mississippi and states similar, however, it does put these states in play.

    In another segment of the population, the working class, although unemployment and deficit are at record levels, it is a matter of perception. Obama is a master of oratory, and with Romney's appearance as a rich brat, Obama will tear him to shreads on the campaign trail and in the debates. Romney looks like a Lawerence Welk singer with that fake smile super glued to his face.

    I go to a very conservative Baptist church in a very conservative state. On average, the members I come into contact with on a regular basis, and also in the work place, have no tolerance of Romney, his ideas about right to life, gay rights, gun control, and government control of health care. Locally, those issues are taken very seriously. My guess is that this is a reflection of the entire Bible belt.

    I can remember in 2008, arguing about voting for McCain, about voting for McCain as being better than allowing a Democratic victory. The Republicans learned nothing. They chose a candidate infinitely worse than McCain was. At this late stage, the only positive thing to come out of this election is going to be that maybe, just maybe, people will start to get involved and make sure in 2016, a decent candidate is nominated.

    There is nothing that makes me sicker than the choices in this election, but those who sat around and did nothing and are now supporting Romney are getting exactly what they asked for.

    Here is my predictions

    Popular vote

    Obama 54
    Romney 45
    Other 1

    Electoral Vote

    Obama 320
    Romney 218
     
  3. mandym

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    Obama will lose by a pretty good margin
     
  4. HankD

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    I agree with saturneptune that many conservative voters will be in a dilemma in a vote for Romney.

    However I feel that the decision will fall on the side of a vote for Romney due to the Obama
    scandals,
    failures,
    arrogance and
    far left philosophy, particularly the redistribution of wealth and all its ramifications,
    expanding governmental tyranny and it's personal intrusions of everyday life,
    along with his hatred of self enterprise,
    etc, etc... will result in his self fulfilling prophecy of being a "one-term" president.

    Romney 54 (Santorum will be VP)
    Obama 46.

    I had thought for a while that Obama would ultimately win with the billion $$$ campaign fund along with the backing of our less than objective left-sided propaganda press.

    However the government scandals (the proverbial "last straw" IMO) are piling up for which he will (perhaps unfairly in some cases) have to accept blame, pushing Romney's popularity (in spite of his flipflopping and mormonism) over the edge of victory.

    That is of course if the GOP capitalizes thereupon by advertising (aka mudslinging) concerning said scandals.

    The inventory of mud for president Obama is the greatest I have ever seen against a president in my lifetime and perhaps even in our history.

    Of course the GOP can (and maybe will) let this proverbial ball slip through their hands.

    Granted - pure speculation.

    HankD
     
  5. HankD

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    Suppose you are wrong SN, will you have any sense of relief that Obama is gone?

    Or do you think it will it go from bad to worse?

    Thanks
    HankD
     
  6. saturneptune

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    It will be fascinating to revisit this thread the day after election day. Yes, I would be ecstatic to see Obama gone, but no confidence whatsoever in what replaced him. Here is the negative side to that. If Romney does win, you know and I know what the administration will be like, and be set up for defeat by the Democrats in 2016. The Republicans will be no closer to being conservative four years from now. To me, it is better to pay the price now, and rid ourselves once and for all in the Republican Party with the Romneys, McCains, and the like.

    Bad to worse was your last question, no, not bad to worse, bad to bad. However, not bad to better either.
     
  7. webdog

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    I think America is starting to see through the media's games based on the polls I have seen. I wouldn't rule out Romney winning in the fall.

    This would allow Obama to serve on a global scale, maybe as the false prophet advertised?
     
  8. HankD

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    I agree. Bad to bad (of a different set of circumstances).

    Hopefully there will be enough of a sense of relief in the business sector so as to re-ignite the economy.

    HankD
     
  9. FriendofSpurgeon

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    I heard Robert Gibbs and Karl Rove speak a few weeks ago. (Very interesting debate between the two of them.) They didn't agree on much -- however, the one issue that they did agree on was that both believe that this election will be very close - much closer than 2008. I tend to agree.

    1. Electoral college changes, as red states picked up additional electoral votes.
    2. The south will still go red in 2012. Not a chance that it will go blue in 2012.
    3. In fact, Romney should win all states that McCain won.
    4. Indiana will go red in 2012. Not even up for discussion in 2012. Obama won with less than 1% in 2008.
    5. Now we are down to the battleground states, all of which Obama won in 2098: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and Wisconsin.

    Go to www.270towin.com and you can play on electoral map. My own prediction is that Romney will win 273 to 265.
     
  10. saturneptune

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    I agree with all points but number 2. I do not know about in Florida where you live, but locally, in conservative rural Kentucky, and talking to my family in Gulfport, MS, there is little or no support for Romney. I can see it very clearly at church and at work. Do not get me wrong, they are not for Obama either.
     
  11. FriendofSpurgeon

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    You're right, the question is what will the (very) conservative wing of the Republican party do?

    1. Will they be "won over" by the Romney campaign? This may depend on who he selects for VP and also may depend on economic issues - and how important they are for them.

    2. If no, will they "hold their noses" and vote for Romney anyway? This is more of an anti-Obama vote than a pro-Romney vote. But do they really want four more years of Obama?

    3. If no, will they simply stay at home and not vote or vote for a 3rd party - realizing that this will help Obama remain in the White House.

    My guess is that #3 - while still a viable choice for some - will begin to diminish for the majority.

    Here are some facts to consider regarding MS & KY:

    Mississippi has voted red in every presidential election since 1976 when they voted for Carter. In 2008, McCain won by a 13 point margin.

    Kentucky last voted for a democrat in 1996 - Clinton. In 2008, Kentucky went for McCain by 16 points.

    Bottom line, I don't think either state is on democratic radar screen.
     
  12. InTheLight

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    My Mom turned 91 recently. Staunch right-winger. Has arthritis and has a tough time getting around. Hasn't voted since 2000, partly because she can't stand in lines very long and quote, "there's not a dime's worth of difference between Republicans and Democrats anymore." She's applying for an absentee ballot so she can vote against Obama. Does she like Romney? No, not a chance, but she loathes Obama.
     
  13. InTheLight

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    My prediction, based on my read of the country right now (and we should all make predictions on Monday Nov. 5th):

    Romney 275
    Obama 263

    In my scenario, everything hinges on Florida. Win Florida, win the Presidency.

    I figure the 2012 electoral map will closely resemble the 2000 map.
     
  14. Bobby Hamilton

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    Sounds like a smart woman.
     
  15. saturneptune

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    FOS,
    It sounds to me like you think Obama has a better chance in Florida than either Kentucky or Mississippi. Of the last two states, his chances would be better in Mississippi. There is not the large plurality of black voters in Kentucky as in Mississippi. In Kentucky it will be closer than McCain, but there is no way Obama will carry this state.

    We all need to agree to redo this thread November 5th, and then come back November 7th. Someone is going to eat crow, maybe me.
     
  16. FriendofSpurgeon

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    Obama has a much better chance in Florida than most anywhere else in the south - other than VA. He won in FL in 2008 by 3% and he currently is leading by 5% in the most recent poll, but with 12% still undecided.

    Florida is very purple and is a must win for both Romney and Obama -- but especially Romney. It's hard to imagine 270 electoral votes for Romney if he loses Florida. Plus, Florida picks up 2 additional electoral votes for a total of 29 for 2012 - which makes it the largest swing state.

    Florida is an interesting mix. Geographically, it can be broken out by four key areas:
    I-10 corridor -- Pensacola to Tallahassee to Jacksonville
    I-4 corridor -- Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach
    SW Florida --Tampa to Naples
    SE Florida -- West Palm Beach to Key West

    In addition, you have the following sub-groups (probably more): Military, Seniors, Anglos, African-Americans, Jewish-Americans, Cuban-Americans, and Other hispanics - Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, etc.
     
  17. ktn4eg

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    Unless something very drastic happens between now and November, I plan to vote for the Constitution Party.
     
  18. Winman

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    My prediction? Look for trouble to erupt in the Middle East in late summer. People always support the President in times of trouble, you don't want a new man on the job at times like this.
     
  19. Arbo

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    My guess is that Romney will play the part of Reagan to Obama's Carter on election day.
     
  20. blackbird

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    I foresee-----most unfortunetly----another Obama win

    The black vote will go toward "O"

    The white vote will go toward Romney

    but here's the BUT(and its a big one)

    I believe the reason for the democratic win will be----not because the blacks got out and voted----but because white Christians didn't

    Too many white voters WON'T because "I'm not voting a Morman into the White House!!!"

    Well---to that I say two things

    1. I am voting for President of the United States----not Pastor of the United States

    2. What do you want more in office----a Morman or a Islamic sympathizer??????:tonofbricks:
     

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