Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

Democrat-held seats likely to be picked up by Republicans (4): West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas

Democrat-held seats that are toss-ups (4): Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska, Michigan

Democrat-held seats that lean Democratic but with a plausible GOP pick-up (3): Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire

Democrat-held seats likely or almost certain to be retained by Democrats (10): Minnesota, Oregon, New Jersey, Virginia, Hawaii (special election), Massachusetts, Illinois, New Mexico, Delaware, Rhode Island

Republican-held seats that lean Republican but where Democratic pick-up is possible (2): Georgia, Kentucky

Republican-held seats likely or almost certain to be retained by Republicans (13): Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina (regular election), Nebraska, South Carolina (special election), Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma (special election), Kansas, Oklahoma (regular election), Wyoming, Alabama, Idaho