Stocks Say Recession, But Bonds Say Depression

Crabtownboy · Dec 11, 2008

Extraordinary things are happening in bond land lately. Tuesday's head-spinning news that Treasury bills had been auctioned off with negative interest rates is only the latest in a series of astonishing developments, surpassing even the more widely followed stock market swings.

While the Treasury auction grabbed headlines, corporate bonds are doing equally amazing things: The average yield on lower quality investment grade corporate bonds — triple-B rated — is hovering around 10%, an unusually rich 7.5 percentage point spread over Treasury bonds of similar maturity. (That spread has tripled over the past year.) Or consider junk bonds, as measured by Merrill Lynch's High-Yield bond index, which yield a jaw-dropping 22%. Of course, junk bonds come from the riskiest borrowers, and a deep recession could drive up the default rate among those companies. But current lofty yields imply investor expectations that one fifth of these bonds will default, according to Moody's, even though the recent default rate in this sector has been around 3%
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http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1865766,00.html

targus · Dec 11, 2008

Or how much of this is simply the result of companies trying to borrow money by issuing bonds during a time of tight credit?

And how much of it is the reaction of unsophisticated investors shifting money from a falling stock market to a bond market that is paying high rates of interest?

Stocks Say Recession, But Bonds Say Depression

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Stocks Say Recession, But Bonds Say Depression

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