Why Obama is Ahead in the Polls

Discussion in 'Politics' started by carpro, Sep 17, 2012.

  1. carpro

    carpro
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    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/this-graph-shows-why-obama-is-ahead-in-the-polls/

    THIS GRAPH SHOWS WHY OBAMA IS AHEAD IN THE POLLS


    EXCERPT

    The real take-away which I have mentioned the times I blog national polls is that many of those national polls are HORRIBLE for Obama, namely the ABC/Washington Post and CBS/New York Times polls where you have large Democrat over-samplings but rather small leads for Obama. This means if Obama doesn’t meet or beat his stellar 2008 turnout advantage he’s in for a drubbing on election day.

    These over-samplings serve a few purposes but mainly drive down enthusiasm for Republicans while assisting the Obama campaign with “bandwagon” supporters who simply like being on the winning team (they’re real and they count).
     
  2. preachinjesus

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    We'll see. The Republicans did him a huge favor nominating a weak candidate who can't articulate his positions with clarity.

    I've primarily been watching Gallup and the Rassmussen polls. They were the most accurate for the last two election cycles.

    CNN and MSNBC have been trying to call the election since last December. The unethical behavior of modern journalism is almost unparalleled right now. I don't listen to or trust any of the networks, but think this is going to be a closer election than it was looking like in March or April.

    I'm still confounded how Romney is not up by 10 points after a terrible week for the current administration.
     
  3. saturneptune

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    You are correct IMO. In 1980, when the election was so "close" on election eve, the Republican nominee knew how to articulate his positions in a clear and reasonable manner. He connected with the voters in way way that transcended party lines. As we all know, Carter was thrashed in the electoral college. It is amazing that Reagan carried New York, Michigan, the west coast, and many other traditionally liberal states.

    This year is different. The Republican message is not quite as clear, and there are quite a few swing states. Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio plus a few others will decide the election. It will also be decided by events in the next fifty days.

    Vice-Presidents usually do not make much of a difference, but I will give Romney credit for picking an excellent choice. Although some do not like Ryan's views, he knows how to connect with voters much better than Romney. On the other side, the President is a better speaker than the VP. I would say that the choice of Ryan put Wisconsin in play, with an outside chance of Iowa and Michigan.

    Another thing I notice about this year's election is the wide gap in states that will go for either candidate. For example, in my state, Kentucky, Obama got about 35% of the vote in 2008, and this year, I am going to guess lower. In the Democratic Primary this year, Obama got 51% of the vote and undecided got 49%. We are a closed primary state. It is just the opposite in states like Vermont, California, Washington, etc....

    Taking all of this together, and this is just a guess, Obama will probably win a by a small margin in the electoral college. Romney certainly can win, as he is not that far behind, and fifty days is an eternity in politics. The only distrubing trend I see is moderate Obama gains in some of the swing states.

    Your central point still stands. A strong Republican candidate would have crushed Obama.
     
  4. carpro

    carpro
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    I have come to believe that is not the case. Look at it. At least 35% of the potential voters are hardcore liberal. About the same for conservative. Of the other 30%, most of them lean democrat. A very very small percentage could be considered truly independent and undecided. Very small.

    That being the case, popular vote wise, I don't believe the Republican candidate could "crush" Obama, no matter who it is. Too large a percentage of the public are now receiving some sort of government assistance. Their votes have been bought, over time, by democrats.

    Electoral vote is another matter entirely.

    Still, any landslide electorally, would favor democrats . Always.

    Just my opinion. I don't have a thing to back it up. It's just an overall impression.
     
    #4 carpro, Sep 17, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 17, 2012
  5. Arbo

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    This may be an overly simplistic view, but I see many similarities between this election cycle and that of 1980 (including Reagan being behind in the polls), and we know how that turned out.
     

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