World Oil Supply Outlook: Supply Growth Through 2030 with No Peak Evident

The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks
Author: Peter M. Jackson
OIL SUPPLY--WHAT BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE?

The controversy surrounding future oil supply can be divided into two components: a determination of the factors that will drive the much-debated future of oil supply and then, longer term, a consideration of consequences and the actions required when oil supply eventually plateaus. IHS CERA identifies a number of critical observations at the core of this analysis of future supply:

• Supply evolution through 2030 is not a question of resource availability.
• IHS CERA projects growth of productive capacity through 2030, with no peak evident.
• There is no unique picture of the course of future of supply: we are dealing with a complex, multicomponent system.
• Aboveground drivers—economics, costs, service sector capability, geopolitics, the timing and nature of government decision making, and, centrally of course, investment—are crucial to future supply availability.
• Market dynamics will remain highly volatile.
• The upstream oil industry faces major challenges in finding new oil and turning discoveries into commercial production.

Full report at www.cera.com/aspx/cda/client/report/report.aspx?KID=5&CID=10720