World peak of oil production

Discussion in '2007 Archive' started by ByGracethroughFaith, Aug 15, 2007.

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  1. ByGracethroughFaith

    ByGracethroughFaith
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    I am just checking on the awareness of those on this forum of the impending world peak of oil production, and its relation to the four horsemen of the apocalypse. An event with all of the characteristics of those associated with this event has been prophecied many times in the OT, IE Micah 5:10-15, and Nahum 2:3-4 etc.

    Doing a simple study on 'chariots' will bring more light on the subject.


    BGTF
     
  2. KenH

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    The idea that the world will soon reach "peak oil" is a bunch of hokum.
     
  3. ByGracethroughFaith

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    Not true. I work in the oil business, and have been following this very closely for 5 years. I agree there are some that would be determined as 'fringe' groups that give the idea a bad name, but facts are facts. We have been on an undulating plateau since 2005, with ever increasing drilling programs, and rising prices. The oil required is not there to be found, hence it is rationed by price. The longer the plateau is held, the steeper the drop will be at the end. Countries whose survival is based on readily available energy supplies will be the most hardest hit.

    Unfortunately the safest thing for the leaders to do is encourage the people to think exactly like you. That will prolong the so-called 'good times', but the ramifications of that are 'apocalyptic'.....

    Here are the production numbers so you can see for yourself.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls



    Rev 6:6 '...see thou hurt not the oil...'


    BGTF
     
  4. StefanM

    StefanM
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    The Greek word for "oil" there is the word for olive oil.
     
  5. KenH

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    My dad worked for 33 years in the oil business. I have worked in oil business for 29 years, specifically in the crude oil end of the business for almost all of that time.

    What are your qualifications?
     
  6. ByGracethroughFaith

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    The ability to read, and 20 years in oil/gas facilities engineering. The first one is more important though.


    BGTF

    Edit: Clarification of title for simplicity sake
     
    #6 ByGracethroughFaith, Aug 15, 2007
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  7. KenH

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    Guess what? I can read, too. You've got nothing over me when it comes to discussing the oil industry.

    And the fact that you have bought into the Chicken Little peak oil scenario brings into question what you have been reading. Perhaps you should read something not written by Al Gore. That would be a good start. :)
     
  8. ByGracethroughFaith

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    I am sure we can both agree that Al Gore is a fool. He is preaching the lie of human caused global warming. The world peak of oil production is entirely another matter.

    Chicken Little is the term used by those who are afraid of it, but what it means to me is that 'the coming of the Lord draweth nigh', and I am very much looking forward to it. Aren't you?

    In the mean time though, there are going to be some very harsh ramifications.

    You might find these sites useful.

    http://www.energybulletin.net/
    http://www.321energy.com/
    http://www.rigzone.com/news/
    http://www.peakoil.com/


    If not maybe hurricane 'Dean' will give you a first hand example of just how tight supplies are.


    BGTF

    Late edit:
    If you like production numbers, this book is also quite enlightening.
    http://www.amazon.com/dp/047173876X/?tag=baptis04-20
     
    #8 ByGracethroughFaith, Aug 15, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 15, 2007
  9. ByGracethroughFaith

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    Yes, and they burned it in lamps, today we use crude oil and natural gas to create the same effect.

    All three are merely sources of energy. The main difference is that I wouldn't want to fry my eggs in crude oil....


    BGTF
     
  10. KenH

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    I am not the average Joe on the street. I am more than quite aware of how tight supplies currently are.

    I tell you what I am more than willing to debate you on this subject in the days ahead. I can match you book for book, article for article, website for website that would debunk the nonsense of peak oil. But I would prefer that we discuss this person to person instead of merely throwing links at each other. Anyone can Google and come up with links galore.

    And I think trying to tie the idea of peak oil into Bible prophecy is just plum silly.
     
  11. ByGracethroughFaith

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    We can if you want, just as long as you don't quote the likes of Jerome Corsi or Daniel Yergin, then I will start zoning out on you. :)

    BTW. I didn't google them, all those sites were from my favorites, but I held back on some of the more dire ones. Those are the guys who can see what's coming but they have no answers other than run and hide, they are very afraid. It's a shame the gospel fell on deaf ears with them......


    BGTF
     
  12. Magnetic Poles

    Magnetic Poles
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    I'll take a bag of popcorn and a coke. This may be a good show to sit back and watch! :laugh:
     
  13. ByGracethroughFaith

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    For those who are interested it probably would be useful to do it on-line.

    I will start here

    The world peak of oil production is a forgone conclusion. Just like the second coming of Christ, the only thing left to determine is the date, which will only be fully known in hindsight. Calculations by reasonable people (not counting Yergin/CERA) have it between 2005 and 2015 at the latest.

    The USA peak in oil discovery happened in approx 1930 while the USA peak in oil production happened in 1970. In every particular country in the world that has passed over peak, the lag between discovery and production has been approx 40 years. The world peak in discovery was in 1965, and it has been rapidly declining ever since. Graphs and charts are available on request.

    Normally that would have made the peak in world production an automatic to have happened at about this time, but the oil shocks in the 70's caused a delay in production which many believe has offset the peak, while others believe it has not been affected, hence the possible range between 2005 and 2015.

    We are watching the top 4 fields in the world, Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan, Daquing which have accounted for approx 10 MMBPD of production of the current 85 MMBPD. ALL of these have past peak recently (there is still conjecture about Ghawar, but the facts are very compelling). The decline rate in Cantarell is such that in 3 years it will have cut production in half. Ghawar (Ain Dar/Shedgum) appears to have dropped about 1 MMBPD in the last year alone. What this is telling us is that in 3 years we will very likely be down 5.0 MMBPD of production from just these four fields alone, let alone the decline from all the rest of the smaller ones.

    I mentioned the undulating plateau we have been on since 2005. What is going on there is that new smaller fields are coming on, and their production combined with overproducing wells not yet at peack has been able to offset the declines in existing fields thus far. This will come back to bite us huge later....

    Everyone is looking the oilsands in Canada to save them. Wrong! There is not enough natural gas to run the current SAGD (Steam assisted gravity drainage) facilities scheduled for startup in two years, let alone any new ones. People note above ground factors (IE government etc.) which have affected this, and that is true to an extent, but there simply are not enough resources period (technical staff, steel, etc.) to accomplish this. I realize all of these are above ground factors, but the fact is that above ground factors play into what can or can't be produced.

    I am not saying that we will run out of oil, but only that we will not be able to produce enough to satisfy everyone. At that tipping point is where the problems/war really starts.

    All of this is just information until we confirm that the Bible either has something to say or not about it. Ken doesn't think so, but I am sure he hasn't looked yet, and after looking I think he will agree that with the biblical evidence added to this it becomes overwhelming.

    Before I get to that though, my next post will go into EROEI, which Ken probably knows about, but it stands for 'energy returned on energy invested'.

    Over to you Ken


    BGTF

    With all the energy I used on this fancy typing box, I think I brought the peak ahead at least a few minutes. :)
     
  14. KenH

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    I have read the Bible and I think your idea tying oil depletion to Bible prophecy is plum silly. :)

    Now back on topic:

    Have you considered how much oil is off the east coast and the west coast of these United States - and in Alaska? Consider also the potential in Venezuela if Chavez had a sane development policy. Consider also the potential in Iraq if there was any sanity there at all. Consider also the potential in Saudi Arabia to ramp up production in the years to come. Etc., etc., etc.

    Sure, some of this crude isn't too sweet but the refining of sour crudes has come a long way during the past few decades.
     
  15. ByGracethroughFaith

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    Yes, I have considered all of that, and much more including the oil shale in Colorado, LNG, coal gasification, renewables etc. Most of this is where EROEI comes in.

    Here is what is going on in Saudi. There is no potential to ramp up production there.
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2331
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2563

    Don't consider the ramifications of oil depletion being prophesied in the Bible as being silly until I put it all together for you. Then after I am done, everyone can do as Job says:

    Job 21:3 Suffer me that I may speak; and after that I have spoken, mock on . :)

    I will be away for a few days and not back to this until next week.


    BGTF
     
  16. Jack Matthews

    Jack Matthews
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  17. hillclimber1

    hillclimber1
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    Yeah MP, me too. except I'll have iced tea with a twist o' lemon. no sugar.

    I'm very uncharacteristically in Ken's camp now, but bgtf is intriguing.
     
  18. Magnetic Poles

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    Likewise! :thumbs:
     
  19. billwald

    billwald
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    But in either case the price of gasoline should rise to whatever people are willing to pay. This year, most people will pay US$3.50/gal. "Three steps forward, two steps back."

    Why should gas stations charge less than motorists are willing to pay?
     
  20. ByGracethroughFaith

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    I should be posting the biblical support in readable format together tomorrow, but in the meantime I just heard this.

    Click on the link and listen to the topic below.


    http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2007/Simmons.html

    Topic: All the Canaries Have Stopped Singing


    BGTF
     
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