Would Tehran Do the Unthinkable?

A very interesting, well thought out column:

"The fact that Iran has wielded force through proxies and not through its conventional military, however, is a strong indication that the regime understands its strengths and weaknesses. What's more, these signature acts of Iranian violence against the United States were aimed at military targets with the political goal of reducing America's influence in the Middle East. The regime's support for anti-American insurgent elements inside Iraq has a similar purpose. Despicable as this violence is, it differs from al Qaeda's genocidal ambition to kill as many Americans as possible in mass casualty attacks against civilian infrastructure inside the U.S.

What's more, since the Iran/Iraq war, Iran has developed a chemical and biological weapons capability, according to GlobalSecurity.org. Such weapons, while not as singularly destructive as an A-bomb, are much better suited to surreptitious deployment. An Iranian-instigated chemical or biological attack against Israel or the United States has been within the capability of the Iranian regime for at least a decade, and yet they have not launched one. Nor have the Iranians committed 9/11-style terrorist spectaculars against the U.S. homeland despite the relative ease and low cost of such attacks.

All this suggests that Iran understands, and respects, the limits of its aggression. Despite the end times rhetoric issuing forth from its demagogic president, the country has assiduously avoided acts that would invite a massive military retaliation. This is not indicative of a nation longing for a nuclear conflagration.

To argue that Iran does not have the hallmarks of a suicidal state is not to argue for complacency in the face of its nuclear ambitions. Clearly a nuclear-armed Iran would complicate America's involvement in the Middle East, raising the costs of our alliances and minimizing our leverage with the region's autocratic oil pumpers. That's not ideal, but nor is it a harbinger of the apocalypse.

America has a long, and largely successful, history of containing and deterring nations much stronger and much more viscerally hostile to America than Iran. With two ongoing wars in the region, the untamed menace of a reconstituting al Qaeda in an unraveling (nuclear) Pakistan, a rising China, budget deficits as far as the eye can see, and a strained Army, the U.S. should resort to non-military tools to curtail Iran's nuclear pursuit."

- first part at www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/would_tehran_do_the_unthinkabl.html

 

Even if Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons it is years away from being able to do so.

Pakistan has nuclear weapons now and the country is in danger of destabilizing much like Iran did in 1979 when Islamic militants took over.