Good news.
With the second wave of H1N1 infections having crested in the United States, leading epidemiologists are predicting that the pandemic could end up ranking as the mildest since modern medicine began documenting influenza outbreaks.
Experts warn that influenza is notoriously unpredictable, but several recent analyses, including one released late Monday, indicate the death toll is likely to be far lower than the number of fatalities caused by past pandemics.
The predictions are being met with a mix of skepticism, relief and trepidation: Public health officials worry people may get complacent about getting vaccinated, which could prove disastrous if a third wave of infections swells later this winter or the virus mutates into a more dangerous form.
"I think it is very likely to be the mildest pandemic on record," said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, who led a federally funded analysis with researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and elsewhere published online Monday by the journal PLoS Medicine.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/07/AR2009120703162.html?hpid=topnews