OUTLOOK 2014 - Chief Economist Richard Hoey presents his outlook for 2014

[Crabtownboy]

Some good news ..............

We believe that the U.S. has passed the midpoint of what should prove to be a seven year economic expansion. Because the initial years of expansion were so slow, inflationary pressures have not built up and U.S. monetary policy can remain stimulative for an extended period of time. After more than four years of subpar economic growth near 2%, we expect a "three for three" pattern of roughly 3% real GDP growth in the U.S. for the next three years. Stagnation in the U.K. has given way to a sustainable expansion and the outlook is favorable. In Europe, the good news is that the euro should remain intact, the double-dip recession has ended and a sustained but muted expansion has begun. The bad news is that the pace of economic growth in Europe over the coming years is likely to be modest, given a combination of high debt burdens, challenging demographics, and only hesitant movement towards reducing north/south imbalances within the Eurozone. Following two decades of stagnation, Japan is experiencing a fast pace of growth in the early phases of Abenomics. After a volatile pattern of pre-buying, then payback, due to the hike in the Value Added Tax scheduled for April 2014, moderate expansion should persist.

http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/...o-richard-hoey.html?WT.mc_id=fsmc2013_taboola

 

[InTheLight]

Some more good news:
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The economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest rate in almost two years as Americans stepped up spending on services such as health care and companies invested more in software. Gross domestic product climbed at a revised 4.1 percent annualized rate, the strongest since the final three months of 2011 and up from a previous estimate of 3.6 percent, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington.

Today’s report also included corporate profits. Before-tax earnings rose at a 1.9 percent rate after climbing at a 3.3 percent pace in the prior period. They increased 5.7 percent from the same time last year.

Residential real estate is underpinning the economy, as rising prices boost household wealth and growing demand helps the industry overcome rising mortgage rates. Data from the Commerce Department this week showed that housing starts jumped 22.7 percent to a 1.09 million annualized rate, the most since February 2008, while permits for future projects also held near a five-year high, indicating that the pickup will be sustained into next year.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-s-dot-revised-higher-on-services-spending#p1

 

[poncho]

The Hidden Message

Everything is fine don't be afraid to go further in debt this Christmas! :1_grouphug:

 

[Crabtownboy]

Everything is fine don't be afraid to go further in debt this Christmas! :1_grouphug:

Never go into debt for anything that depreciates in value!!!

 

[poncho]

Never go into debt for anything that depreciates in value!!!

That's some good advice there Crabby. It's a bit too late though seeing as how Americans are born indebted to a private banking cartel that has driven the value of the dollar down 98% since 1973.

But hey don't worry the economy is doing great!

 

[Crabtownboy]

That's some good advice there Crabby. It's a bit too late though seeing as how Americans are born indebted to a private banking cartel that has driven the value of the dollar down 98% since 1973.

But hey don't worry the economy is doing great!

The stock market has done very well this year.

 

[poncho]

The stock market has done very well this year.

Of course it has the Fed has been pumping air into the stock market bubble on a monthly basis. What else did you expect from QE?

A real recovery? Floating an economy on a flood of fiat currency that loses value as it's being printed is not a real recovery. It's an illusion and illusions aren't real.

Housing mortgage applications are down to a 13 year low. But not to worry international investment firms are buying up homes and turning them into rental properties. And China is busy buying up commercial properties at bargain basement prices. So at least it looks like the housing market is doing better.

But it's not. It's an illusion.

It's just being restructured under new ownership. The private international banks and investment firms.

It should make for some very interesting reading here when the illusion can no longer be maintianed. My prediction is that the democrats will blame the republicans and the republicans will blame the democrats while the private bankers who have safely stashed our national wealth in off shore accounts assume no responsibility for robbing us blind with their debt based fiat money from thin air scam.

Need I remind you that it was the high ranking official government economists that kept telling us the economy was doing great right up to the precipice of the collapse of 2008?

They were in dream world then and I doubt very much they've learned anything from the past.

 

[poncho]

Demand for food stamps soars as cuts sink in and shelves empty

More working Americans are lining up at emergency food banks and going hungry, as cuts to those programmes take effect

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ammes-cuts-working-americans-texas?CMP=twt_fd

Trillions for the banks and Wall Street while poor hungry working class American's get their food stamps cut.

Yeah the economy is doing great. For a few.

Merry Christmas Wall Street!

Spot The Paradox

This morning we showed that new home prices in America have never been higher. This is great news, right? Well not if you are an average American looking to buy a new home. Based on the median real income, home prices have never been more unaffordable at a stunning 6.7x average salary. Moreover, for those unable to see the bubble (or unsustainability), it appears Bernanke learned well from his previous planner-in-chief, having manufactured a much more aggressive ramp in prices leaving the average American even further away from the American Dream.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-24/spot-paradox

But the stock market is doing very well.

Merry Christmas to all the private central banks!

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Hoey is a shill for an investment bank. Of course he is going to say the economy is going to recover better than it has so far. Otherwise the investment bank's investors put their money in gold, silver and diamonds instead of stocks, which is where the bank makes its money. "Chief economist?" What a joke! CTB posting an "economic forecast" from an investment bank??? He suddenly buys into the conservative economic side of politics?? Yeah right!

And dishonest, in using that "title" in naming the thread.

How about a REAL forecast? Right here.