It's Time To Stop Blaming the Weather

[Revmitchell]

It’s time to stop blaming the weather.

The U.S. economy contracted sharply during the first quarter, much more than the government had previously forecast and the most since the height of the 2008-2009 recession that followed the financial crisis.

Revised figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Commerce Department show the economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9% during the first three months of 2014, far more than the 1% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) the government had estimated last month.

Consumer spending and exports were also weaker than earlier estimates.

A slight pullback in first-quarter economic growth had been widely expected mainly due to an unusually harsh winter that kept consumers home and disrupted supply chains, among other problems, and the Commerce Department’s first two GDP estimates reflected that.

But economists, analysts and policy makers now say the newly revised numbers reveal broad structural weaknesses in the economy, flaws that go well-beyond issues caused by a temporary spate of bad weather.

“You cannot dismiss the data as being entirely a fluke,” said Cliff Waldman, senior economist for the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI), a public policy and economics research organization in Arlington, Va.

Waldman said the setback in growth should be viewed as “a warning sign” that the economic recovery is far more fragile than previously believed. He said the weather remained a factor, but that it merely exacerbated much larger issues facing U.S. businesses, notably “a lack of certainty and confidence.”

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-...ime-to-stop-blaming-weather/?intcmp=obnetwork

 

[InTheLight]

Wonder what these "experts" are going to say when Q2 GDP pulls in at 3.0 or higher? That will be almost a 6 point swing. Then can we say IT WAS the weather?

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Wonder what these "experts" are going to say when Q2 GDP pulls in at 3.0 or higher? That will be almost a 6 point swing. Then can we say IT WAS the weather?

If that happens, it will only be because QE is not being discontinued as advertised, but is being used to prop up the markets. You'll notice I haven't bitten on your bait this last week, because what you're ignoring is that these favorable economic reports are something that has been going on for four or five years, only to be revised several months later when this administration thinks no one is paying attention.

MAPI is an industry group, and their own June news releases constantly pound the "investment-fueled expansion" drum, meaning they have a vested interest in helping the government convince investors to put money into a market by forecasting outrageous and even unprecedented growth when all the other economic indicators are for stagnant or modest growth in all sectors.

The fact is, given the politicization of the Department of Justice, Health and Human Services, the VA, the IRS, the Treasury Department in general, and other agencies of the federal government, it is simply no longer possible to trust the numbers they generate. Is it accurate, or is it politics? Hard to say. Even this recent 2.9% revision is no more trustworthy then the earlier "growth" numbers. They could be as accurate as such numbers ever are, arrived at as honestly as they ever were, or they could be politically massaged numbers.

I mean, think about it. Since Truman, the economy has been studied, researched, analyzed and massaged by governments whose level of popularity is directly tied to the health of the markets and the health of Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public's bank account. It's hard to understand why we should have ever considered such numbers from such sources trustworthy, and now we have a president who obviously isn't afraid to lie, cheat, steal and who-knows-what-else in order to give appearance of control and success.

Regardless, the economy is not bouncing back. It may be entering a kind of equilibrium at a level roughly equal to what it was in 2008-09, but it's hard to tell. While the stock market has apparently recovered, on aggregate, most of the territory lost in the 2008 drop, that doesn't mean the rest of the economy is growing. It means corporations have managed to figure out ways to make a profit within the restricted economy and uncertain regulations of the Obama presidency.

It doesn't mean they are hiring. They're not. Hiring is happening at the small business, "mom-and-pop" stores serving local economies and hiring only part-time workers.

It doesn't mean they're expanding. They say they "plan to" but the reality is, they are not. Manufacturing expansion forecasts have done the same thing the economic growth forecasts of the last several years have done: Come out highly optimistic only to be revised downward much later, again when the administration thinks no one is watching.

The unemployment rate may be down, but the percentage of potential workers without jobs hasn't changed much, and those that have given up finding work are simply not counted as "unemployed" anymore. It makes no difference if someone without a job is drawing benefits or not. "Out of work" is "out of work" except at the U.S. Department of Labor. The non-working able-bodied employable is at an all time high, nearly 40% of the available workforce. That is not a healthy economy no matter how one tries to pretty up with powder and bows.

Deficits are still high, even if not as astronomical as they were the first four years of Obama's tenure, but the national debt still balloons at the rate of $1 million every 15 seconds.

The long-term outlook is not good if Obama's policies, especially Obamacare, continue in place. Anyone who invests in this market without realizing it is a huge bubble ready to burst any time now has no respect for history or his money.

 

[InTheLight]

If that happens, it will only be because QE is not being discontinued as advertised, but is being used to prop up the markets.

Yeah, still waiting for you to:
a.) tell us how much money from QE3 is getting into the stock market
b.) how it is getting into the stock market.

You'll notice I haven't bitten on your bait this last week, because what you're ignoring is that these favorable economic reports are something that has been going on for four or five years, only to be revised several months later when this administration thinks no one is paying attention.

R-i-i-i-i-ight. We've had five years of positive economic reports and when the revisions come in no one can find them on the internet.

It doesn't mean they are hiring. They're not. Hiring is happening at the small business, "mom-and-pop" stores serving local economies and hiring only part-time workers.

Prove this. Second time you've said it in 2 posts today.

It doesn't mean they're expanding. They say they "plan to" but the reality is, they are not. Manufacturing expansion forecasts have done the same thing the economic growth forecasts of the last several years have done: Come out highly optimistic only to be revised downward much later, again when the administration thinks no one is watching.

OK, OK, I concede. Wall Street underwriters and investment firms that control billions of dollars are just shills for the administration and have no clue that Obama issues revisions after the preliminary results come out.

 

[Revmitchell]

According to shocking new numbers that were just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20 percent of American families do not have a single person that is working. So when someone tries to tell you that the unemployment rate in the United States is about 7 percent, you should just laugh. One-fifth of the families in the entire country do not have a single member with a job. That is absolutely astonishing. How can a family survive if nobody is making any money? Well, the answer to that question is actually quite easy. There is a reason why government dependence has reached epidemic levels in the United States. Without enough jobs, tens of millions of additional Americans have been forced to reach out to the government for help. At this point, if you can believe it, the number of Americans getting money or benefits from the federal government each month exceeds the number of full-time workers in the private sector by more than 60 million.

When I was growing up, it seemed like anyone that was willing to work hard could find a good paying job. But now that has all changed. At this point, 20 percent of all the families in the entire country do not have a single member that has a job. That includes fathers, mothers and children. The following is how CNSNews.com broke down the numbers…

A family, as defined by the BLS, is a group of two or more people who live together and who are related by birth, adoption or marriage. In 2013, there were 80,445,000 families in the United States and in 16,127,000—or 20 percent–no one had a job.
To be honest, these really are Great Depression-type numbers. But over the years “unemployment” has been redefined so many times that it doesn’t mean the same thing that it once did. The government tells us that the official unemployment rate is about 7 percent, but that number is almost meaningless at this point.

A number that I find much more useful is the employment-population ratio. According to the employment-population ratio, the percentage of working age Americans that actually have a job has been below 59 percent for more than four years in a row…

Employment Population Ratio 2014

That means that more than 41 percent of all working age Americans do not have a job.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...rate-20-american-families-everyone-unemployed

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

Yeah, still waiting for you to:
a.) tell us how much money from QE3 is getting into the stock market
b.) how it is getting into the stock market.

I told you once and you ignored it. The last influx amounted to $1.6 trillion, and it went into the market from private investors basing their decisions on the alleged (but thus far false) end to QE. This is virtually the same thing as handing the investors the money and telling them to put it into the stock market. It is obvious, as Forbes said in an article back in March, that investors prefer an end to QE, but the Fed sees far too much advantage in falsely supported markets based on the promise of an end to government intervention the Fed has absolutely no intention of actually ending.

R-i-i-i-i-ight. We've had five years of positive economic reports and when the revisions come in no one can find them on the internet.

The BEA has "revised" economic growth numbers downward six of the last seven quarters. How is it you don't know that?

Prove this. Second time you've said it in 2 posts today.

See the other thread.

OK, OK, I concede. Wall Street underwriters and investment firms that control billions of dollars are just shills for the administration and have no clue that Obama issues revisions after the preliminary results come out.

No, they are shills for themselves, and right now that just happens to be in conjunction with the aims of the administration. What do you think would happen if the underwriters and investment firms actually preached the gloom and doom that is on the horizon?

They aren't in business to drive customers' money out the door. They, like the government, will continue to preach good times arollin' right up until the roof caves in.