2020 Democrats’ Progressive Profligacy

[KenH]

“It's an agenda not just for big government, but for gigantic, enormous, jumbo, super-colossal government. In fact, the rapidly growing Democratic field has collectively moved so far to the left that it is about to fall off the edge of the political charts.”

2020 Democrats' Progressive Profligacy

 

[church mouse guy]

“It's an agenda not just for big government, but for gigantic, enormous, jumbo, super-colossal government. In fact, the rapidly growing Democratic field has collectively moved so far to the left that it is about to fall off the edge of the political charts.”

2020 Democrats' Progressive Profligacy

Republicans don't share Cato's bleak assessment of our chances. Trump is good but the local parties are lagging. The Dems are missing a decent candidate.

 

[InTheLight]

From the article:

Although the president often brags about his victory in 2016, it is important to recall that a shift of just 107,000 votes in three states would have changed the outcome. That was less than 0.09 percent of all votes cast — and this when Trump was running against one of the most unpopular presidential candidates of all time. Since his victory he has done virtually nothing to expand his support beyond his loyal base. His approval rating hovers somewhere between low and dismal.

Oh my. In an attempt to show Trump is unpopular the author has taken some liberties.

Let's dissect this.

Claim: "107,000 votes in three states would have shifted the election. That's less than 0.09% of all votes cast."

Well, no. 107,000 is less than 0.09% of all votes cast NATIONWIDE. But what percent of votes in the three key states is 107,000? It's more than 0.09%, that's for sure.

Claim: "His approval rating hovers somewhere between low and dismal."

Trump's approval rating is at 41.3% (From Gallup and YouGov polls) Is that low? Is that dismal? At the same point in Obama's presidency, 1,026 days in, Obama was at 44.4%.
How Popular Is Donald Trump?

These are polls of all adults. When you poll Likely Voters, Trump's approval rating is at 47% (Rasmussen, Nov 6-10 poll)

So is 47% considered low to dismal? I don't think so.

As to the point of the article, Democrats "profligacy", while I wouldn't use that word, I can agree with the conclusions. The Democrats are so far left they are about to fall off the charts.

 

[KenH]

But what percent of votes in the three key states is 107,000? It's more than 0.09%, that's for sure.

Trump won Michigan by 11,612 votes, or 0.3%.
Trump won Pennsylvania by 68,236 votes, or 1.2%.
Trump won Wisconsin by 27,257 votes, or 1.0%.

I think a big problem for Trump in these three states is the number young people who will have become eligible to vote, or who will be 4 years older(and as people get older they are more likely to vote), and also the number of older people who voted for Trump but who will have died between November 2016 and November 2020.

 

[InTheLight]

Trump won Michigan by 11,612 votes, or 0.3%.
Trump won Pennsylvania by 68,236 votes, or 1.2%.
Trump won Wisconsin by 27,257 votes, or 1.0%.

I think a big problem for Trump in these three states is the number young people who will have become eligible to vote, or who will be 4 years older(and as people get older they are more likely to vote), and also the number of older people who voted for Trump but who will have died between November 2016 and November 2020.

I think a big problem for Democrats will be the number of Hispanics and blacks that are going to swing over to Trump.

 

[church mouse guy]

Trump won Michigan by 11,612 votes, or 0.3%.
Trump won Pennsylvania by 68,236 votes, or 1.2%.
Trump won Wisconsin by 27,257 votes, or 1.0%.

I think a big problem for Trump in these three states is the number young people who will have become eligible to vote, or who will be 4 years older(and as people get older they are more likely to vote), and also the number of older people who voted for Trump but who will have died between November 2016 and November 2020.

Pennsylvania has a lot of fracking going on and the Democrats and Libertarians want to shut down that so I think that Pennsylvania is leaning Republican. I think that the margin of victory will be even bigger in Michigan. Strangely, Indiana now has a lot of people from Michigan and Illinois living here. We have a lot of low-paying jobs but Michigan and Illinois have more severe financial problems. Those two states always looked down their noses at us and the exodus used to be to those states but now it is away from those states.

 

[KenH]

I think a big problem for Democrats will be the number of Hispanics and blacks that are going to swing over to Trump.

Very, very, very doubtful.

 

[KenH]

Pennsylvania has a lot of fracking going on and the Democrats and Libertarians want to shut down

From the Libertarian Party platform:

2.3 Energy and Resources
While energy is needed to fuel a modern society, government should not be subsidizing any particular form of energy. We oppose all government control of energy pricing, allocation, and production.

 

[church mouse guy]

Very, very, very doubtful.

Libertarians are mostly white as far as I know. Hispanics like business so they like the GOP for the unfettered opportunity to have a business. Blacks have been going to the White House to meet the President, especially young black leaders. If Blacks stay home or vote GOP in some numbers, it is doomsday for the Dems.

The Dems may be losing some Jewish voters also. The Muslims in Congress and AOC have made it clear that they don't have any use for Jews and stand with Palestine. Even Sanders is in favor of BDS although the stents that saved his life came from Israel. Bernie, get those Israeli stents out today without delay. Try some Cuban stents or Canadian stents, Bernie. And Bernie, quit spending so much time with the Pope--he makes you look older than you are.

 

[InTheLight]

Very, very, very doubtful.

What concerns progressives is that despite their relentless rhetorical assault, Trump’s approval ratings among black voters appear to range between 18–34 percent (among Hispanics that number has reached the forties, even though Trump wants to put them all in cages before deporting them to Greenland). Fourteen months from the next presidential election, those approval numbers are cause not just for Democratic concern, but apoplexy.

A Democratic presidential candidate needs to get approximately 85–95 percent of the black vote to have a chance of winning. According to Roper Center data, in the last eight presidential elections the black vote was cast as follows:

• Dukakis 89 percent, Bush 10 percent
• Clinton 83 percent, Bush 10 percent
• Clinton 84 percent, Dole 12 percent
• Gore 90 percent, Bush 9 percent
• Kerry 88 percent, Bush 11 percent
• Obama 95 percent, McCain 4 percent
• Obama 93 percent, Romney 6 percent
• Clinton 89 percent, Trump 8 percent

President Trump and the Black Vote | National Review

 

[KenH]

it is doomsday for the Dems.

For the good of the United States, I hope that 2020 will be doomsday for both parties of the Duopoly.

 

[KenH]

Fourteen months from the next presidential election, those approval numbers are cause not just for Democratic concern, but apoplexy.

You may end up being correct, but I frankly think it is just wishful thinking on the part of right-wingers.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

For the good of the United States, I hope that 2020 will be doomsday for both parties of the Duopoly.

Talk about your wishful thinking. However, more powerful antichrists could arise in just that way. It's happened before, as several places around the world have experienced.

 

[KenH]

Talk about your wishful thinking.

Thus, I wrote “hope”, not “expectation”.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Thus, I wrote “hope”, not “expectation”.

Maybe you did, but such a vague hope is not necessarily wise, unless you prefer even worse antichrists than those already wielding power.

 

[KenH]

such a vague hope is not necessarily wise

Maybe not, yet that’s where I’m at.