Death rate 0.5% not 3 or 4% for covid-19, WHO numbers were absurd

That sounds about right. It is still almost 4 times the fatality rate of influenza.

The CFR for countries with very few cases and lots of testing is somewhere round 1%. Assuming you miss around half of cases that are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic, you should get an IFR around 0.5%.

The fatality rate of influenza is around 0.1%.

 

With a God-complex like that and thinking you already know the future. It makes sense now why you think you can actually understand scientific papers.

With these undetected cases, it shows that covid19 is much more infective than previously thought, making lockdowns even more important. The purpose of lockdowns is to control the infection rate of covid19. The purpose of researching treatments is to control its mortality rate.

 

It's not the death rate. I don't know how many times this has been mentioned. It's the infectious nature of the virus and its ability to overwhelm our hospitals and health care workers.

That said, it looks like the curve has been flattened in most parts of the country. Let's start opening up.

 

Not one thing you said addressed my point, which was if you have hundreds of people going to the ER you will overwhelm the health care system, infect health care workers, and cause a terrible situation of having to make innumerable triage decisions.

Social distancing and stay at home orders have flattened the curve. The hospitals are not being overrun. It's time to sensibly open up the economy.

 

The 80-90% figure is for NY where they were overrun. The numbers are similar in Italy and Wuhan.

But when the infection rate is controlled, the mortality rate may be close to 50% like in Seattle and as low as 30% in this Atlanta data undergoing peer review. Interestingly in Atlanta they had early ventilation as part of their guidelines so the jury is still out on the best time to initiate. Remember that the other study that your articles quoted advised delaying ventilator use because it is a scarce resource, not because it increases mortality.

medRxiv COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv

 

Are you certain NY was overrun? Seems the latest admission is that was never true, that they never needed more "vents" than they had and certainly not the 30-40k Cuomo originally demanded.

 

Cuomo Mocks FEMA Shipment: ‘You Want A Pat On The Back For Sending 400 Ventilators?’

Cuomo's 30,000 ventilator statement was made on March 24. At that time, the NY case numbers were doubling every 3 days with 26,000 confirmed cases. When you are in the middle of the exponential growth portion of the curve, it is impossible to predict when that exponential growth will slow down as the first minute of this video explains. Would a good leader only prepare for the best case scenario and say that everything is fine and only act after it is apparent they were underprepared? Or would they prepare for all scenarios, including the worst case scenario being played out at the same time across the pond in Italy?

It is good that social distancing, lockdowns and mobilizing other resources (central park field hospital, USNS Comfort, Javits Centre, relocating patients and expanding capacity, ventilator donations/loans/requisitions from China, other states, private groups and other parts of NY state) averted that worst case scenario. The Comfort and Javits treated so few patients because of their very strict transfer criteria.

But hospitals in NY were defintely "overrun" in that many hospitals were overwhelmed with covid19 patients in a short period of time that was beyond their capacity to manage and they needed outside help which for the most part they usually were able to get. Fortunately that period of time was short because lockdown measures were taken early enough. In 2 months there have been 959,000 cases, 67,800 hospitalizations, 18,900 deaths in the state.

Virus Deaths Mount, but N.Y. Avoids Predicted Surge at Hospitals So Far

 

I am interested in the truth here, not in excuses as to why something wasn't or isn't true though claimed to be at the time. The truth is that they were not overrun, but that they were expecting a far worse scenario than materialized.

It is possible that while he was publicly panicking or posturing for the camera, Cuomo failed to actually prepare for the onslaught, so that some areas were not as well prepared as they should have been at the outset, but that is an entirely different matter, one of human incompetence or negligence within the state.

 

BREAKING: New CDC Coronavirus Data Cuts American Death Toll Nearly In HALF

 

Cuomo tells you his reasoning which makes absolute sense in the uncertainty of March 24. The truth is they were overrun AND they were preparing for a far worse scenario that didn’t materialize but very well could have given what was happening in Italy. And it took some historic actions by many people to avoid it.

 

No, you are ignoring the original issue and the reason for the comments. They were not overrun, or if they were, then it was due to their own incompetence, as they had all they ever needed when it was needed.

Cuomo was simultaneously sitting on ten thousand ventilators in storage in a warehouse in NJ and politically whining when he needed to be preparing and distributing, or else they were prepared and were not overrun. You cannot have it both ways.