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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Hoover Institution, Peter Robinson

Discussion in 'News & Current Events' started by church mouse guy, Mar 31, 2020.

  1. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    "Recorded on March 27, 2020 [Peter Robinson interviews Dr. Jay Bhattcharya]

    "Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at both the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute. His March 24, 2020, article in the Wall Street Journal questions the premise that “coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines.” In the article he suggests that “there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.” In this edition of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson we asked Dr. Bhattacharya to defend that statement and describe to us how he arrived at this conclusion. We get into the details of his research, which used data collected from hotspots around the world and his background as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. It’s not popular right now to question conventional wisdom on sheltering in place, but Dr. Bhattacharya makes a strong case for challenging it, based in economics and science."

     
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  2. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Active Member

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    When the epidemic ends, the prevailing establishment ideas will be the extreme lock down measures saved millions from dying as the idea that it was not needed to be done would be hard to digest...seeing how their lockdowns have added trillions to our debt and many lost jobs for nothing. The do have an antibody test now, and they need to do those tests on many people to see more of the total number who got infected. Much of the world is in this same lock down boat.

    COVID-19 Antibody Test (ELISA) for Those Already Infected With Coronavirus - MedicineNet Health News
     
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  3. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Active Member

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    The 174,000 americans infected right now, 80% of them so maybe 150,000 will be cured and immune 14 days from now. It is not right to force the recovered people with antibodies in their blood to force them to continue to shelter in place, that is crazy. Every day that goes by more and more numbers of Americans will become immune.

    And that does not count the untold possible large numbers of people who got the disease and recovered without ever visiting a doctor. Pure insanity to force immune people to shelter in place in fear and not let them go back to normal life.
     
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  4. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    Yes, you are correct.

    The economic damage is very great and that will be deadly if it destroys the little prosperity of people just barely out of poverty for the first time throughout the world. Dr. Bhattacharya is easy to understand and he is both a professor of medicine and a Ph.D. in economics. God has blessed me in that I am still working 40 hours a week, which gets me out of my home and helps. God works in mysterious ways.

    God moves in a mysterious way
    his wonders to perform;
    he plants his footsteps in the sea,
    and rides upon the storm.

    William Cowper hymn 1774
     
  5. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Active Member

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    Once NYC peaks and the numbers are coming down, NYC seeing it had a high infection rate will also have the healthiest population as a city in the USA as far as covid -19, seeing they are now talking as if this will become a seasonal flu type bug in the future. Ever heard of the chicken pox party? (Not saying that is a good idea to have a party like that, but see this has been forced on us.) They get it over and done more quickly as some are saying eventually everyone might get exposed to this disease.
     
  6. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    Hmm, let the virus naturally spread unchecked wherein it will likely infect a minimum of 1/3 of our population – causing the hospitals to be completely overrun and resulting in a 10% death rate, 110,000,000 x 10% = a 10.5 million DEAD herd immunity approach VERSES doing everything that we can to slow the spread until we come up with treatments and a vaccine likely saving 10 million+ lives, HMM, let me think…
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    10.5 million dead or let me go to Appleby's and have my baby back ribs?

    Tough choice for compassionate Christians, I know.

    SMH..

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
     
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  8. David Kent

    David Kent Well-Known Member
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    There was a report from China a day or two ago that they believe that some people have been re-infected.

    A thirteen year old who was healthy before he caught the virus died today.
     
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  9. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    I agree with a lot of what Dr Bhattcharya says in this interview. It is true that there are a lot of unknowns that affect CFR (case fatality rate) which has to do with inadequate testing. The true rate when you account for asymptomatic patients when the health system is not overrun is likely much less than the roughly 0.7% according to global stats. It could very well be close to or under the 0.1% quoted for the seasonal flu.

    But as I keep saying, the mortality rate is a distraction and not the key problem with Covid 19. It is the hospitalization rate and ability to overwhelm health systems. Dr Bhattcharya admits this at the 12:00 mark of the video that covid 19 is still a very serious illness and that the CFR increases when health systems are overwhelmed and that risk still need to be managed.

    I agree that death numbers quoted in the millions for the US are probably incorrect. It will likely be in the hundreds of thousands at its current trajectory which is still devastating, not to mention the havoc it will create in health systems that will have a lasting impact beyond the crisis.
     
    #9 Gold Dragon, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
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  10. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    Watch the video if you have time.
     
  11. Roy

    Roy <img src=/0710.gif>
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    If testing for antibodies soon becomes available I would like to get it. Early in March, I had chills, fever, and a bad dry cough. The doctor didn't seem concerned about corona and would have treated me with penicillin were it not for the fact that I am allergic to it. I received zpack instead. After a couple of days, I got worse, saw another doctor who gave me a stronger antibiotic. After a week of that med, I was over it.
     
  12. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    The outfit where I work has big posters that say fever of 100.4, coughing, and difficulty breathing, go home. Elderly like me and people with chronic conditions are likely victims. Indianapolis here is a hot spot due to so much squalor.
     
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  13. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    That moron's reasoning infuriates me and I'm so glad this attention hungry idiot isn't calling the shots in how we handle this! People like him that strive to discount the seriousness of this disease are a danger because they influence others with their mindless banter which will then neglectfully approach the precautions and in turn jeopardize others.

    As you might guess I am running out of tolerance for those who are still comparing this to a typical flu and probably the ones who will end up making it worse for their lack of diligence.
     
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  14. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    The flipping death rate is currently 2.2% and climbing and we have tested this more than any flu!! Most people with the flu - NEVER GET TESTED!! To suggest that there are huge numbers of asymptomatic people out there not getting counted to reach such conclusions is ridiculous - THE DISEASE HASN'T EVEN HAD TIME FOR THAT!! The rate of contagion is unmatched in our lifetimes - JUST LOOK AT HOW FAST THE HOSPITALS GET OVERRUN!! This is no sane comparison to the flu and it is imperative that we take every precaution by any means available and ignore these "Unconventional Wisdom" attention seekers!
     
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  15. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    A ...probably conservative ...model of intervention or not:

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    At the moment, the USA has increased 50,000 cases in 3 days. What do you think should be done in the big cities where the people are refusing to obey police orders or where college students are flocking for spring break? Indianapolis is a hot spot for the outbreak and has a crime rate equal to Chicago. The disease has spilled into the rich suburbs.
     
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  17. RighteousnessTemperance&

    RighteousnessTemperance& Well-Known Member

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    He is saying that without real data, which we will have only in a couple of weeks to a month, we don't know the true mortality rate, or true overall effects of the virus on our population. He admits that we do not want to overtax the health system.

    But he has serious concerns about the long term effects of an extended economic downturn due to overreacting to this virus. The nation goes further into debt, companies close, then people lose jobs, lose a sense of purpose, become depressed, turn to drugs, turn to suicide.

    There is a point at which measures being taken will end up trading "lives for lives," as he put it. He is not wrong about that.
     
  18. RighteousnessTemperance&

    RighteousnessTemperance& Well-Known Member

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    This seems the biggest problematic factor in the equation, human nature. They reacted to Trump closing the borders to China travel with disdain and defiance, celebrating Chinese New Year, celebrating Mardi Gras, congregating on Spring Break vacations, etc.

    Even with clearer explanations of what it would mean to keep out of viral contact, people still mass at parks and other recreational and entertainment facilities. Closing schools and businesses will achieve very little with that kind of behavior. Common sense isn't. But no doubt, "Trump didn't protect us," will be their dying refrain. That's what "Darwin Awards" are for.
     
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  19. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    Good summary! Thanks!

    I myself think that we will go into a recession because of high debt and too much printed money although I think that it had to be done. The Dems exacted a price for the unions and some government programs such as PBS, a worthless waste. However, I think that India and Africa will experience a greater setback. I think the Republicans are wrong that there will be a bounceback. People with a lot of cash should be able to snap up some real bargains. I am lucky but I think that Indianapolis people are panicking badly because Indianapolis has a high rate of infection.
     
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  20. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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