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Federal Reserve Predicting 5.4% GDP Growth in Q1

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by InTheLight, Feb 1, 2018.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    The economy is on track to put up blockbuster growth numbers in the first quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed.

    GDP is expected to surge 5.4 percent to start 2018, the central bank branch estimated in its latest rolling look at how the economy is progressing.

    If the forecast holds, it would be the best quarter since the Great Recession ended in 2009. The previous highest was third quarter of 2014, which hit 5.2 percent.



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  2. Reynolds

    Reynolds Well-Known Member
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    And the Democrats continue to keep their heads burried.
     
  3. FollowTheWay

    FollowTheWay Well-Known Member
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    Absolutely not. Here's a statement by the NY Fed member on Jan. 11, 2018:

    Putting it all together, I have raised my real GDP forecast for 2018 by about half a percentage point to three quarters of a percentage point to a 2½ percent to 2¾ percent range.
    The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2018 and Beyond - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
     
  4. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yep, the NY Fed makes their estimate and the Atlanta Fed makes theirs. Notice that the estimate you're quoting is for the entire year and the one I'm quoting is for Q1. But you're so eager to rain on the economic parade of good news you just bypass that fact.

    Now, with unemployment at a 17 year low, with millions of workers getting bonuses, with tax cuts giving people more spending money, with wages rising, with corporations investing millions of dollars in new equipment and expansion thanks to the tax reforms, do you really think growth will just putter along at basically the same tepid rate that's it's been at recently?

    I think the Atlanta Fed is correct and the NY Fed is wrong.

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  5. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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    Momma would say that thinking is equal to guessing and guessing is not knowing (for certain).
     
  6. FollowTheWay

    FollowTheWay Well-Known Member
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    Real GDP growth hasn't been that high from 1990-2017. Last year it was about 2.2%. That forecast just doesn't make sense.

    U.S. real GDP - annual growth rate 1990-2017 | Timeline

    US Real GDP Grwwth 1990-2017.jpg
     
  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Once again we have not had millions of people getting thousands of dollars worth of bonuses, across the board tax cuts, record low unemployment, corporate tax rate reduction, and soaring consumer confidence, etc., all happening simultaneously. That is a recipe for consumption of goods and services. That is what causes economic growth.

    And the prediction was for the first quarter, not the full year.




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  8. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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    Dow Jones been dropping the last few days
     
  9. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Not a long term trend, just a reaction to rising wages possibly creating inflation. A buying opportunity as stocks are on sale.

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  10. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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    We will see.
     
  11. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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    How come my gas went up 50 cents?
     
  12. Rob_BW

    Rob_BW Well-Known Member
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    I thought I read that the recent drop was from medical insurance companies dropping after Bezos said Amazon was entering that market.

    And as an aside, the inevitable tanking of bitcoin has been interesting to see.
     
  13. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    That was Wednesday's irrational reaction. LOL.

    Yes. This idea that a currency can be created from literally nothing, somehow given legitimacy, an exchange created, trades made, and value assigned is fascinating.

    I've often thought that a currency could be created from preserved maple leafs of various colors that are dried and pressed flat in books. Yellow leaves are worth $10, red leaves $50, and orange leaves $100. Let's open a maple leaf currency exchange house!



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    • Informative Informative x 1
  14. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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    If gas prices go up I’m adversely affected. So is just about everyone due to higher transportation costs which will be passed along to consumers.
     
  15. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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  16. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    I hope you've got the appropriate license and permit to use those maple leaf currency manipulation tools!



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  17. Earth Wind and Fire

    Earth Wind and Fire Well-Known Member
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    Are you telling the Jersey Dems about it?
     
  18. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Ha ha ha!

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