food shortage?????

[billwald]

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html

Long read but seems to make sense and is well documented. From the essay:


". . . It is absolutely key to understand that the production of agricultural goods is a fixed, once a year cycle (or twice a year in the case of double crops). The wheat, corn, soybeans and other food staples are harvested in the fall/spring and then that is it for production. It doesn’t matter how high prices go or how desperate people get, no new supply can be brought online until the next harvest at the earliest. The supply must last until the next harvest, which is why it is critical that food is correctly priced to avoid overconsumption, otherwise food shortages occur.

"The USDA—by manufacturing the data needed to keep supply and demand in balance—has ensured that agricultural commodities are incorrectly priced, which has lead to overconsumption and has guaranteed disaster next year when supplies run out. . . ."

 

[Johnv]

Uh, the claim "there is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year" is so ridiculous, it doesn't even need a rebuttal.

 

[donnA]

what it actualy says is that food prices should be raised so high more people go without, more die from starvation, reducing the need for food to extend the precieved current amounts to continue feeding the wealthy.

 

[targus]

Would there be any possible connection between any future food shortage and the governments decision to force the energy industries to use food for fuel?

 

[donnA]

I wouldn't doubt it.

 

[Johnv]

Would there be any possible connection between any future food shortage and the governments decision to force the energy industries to use food for fuel?

Not likely. The market for biofuel in the near future would barely put a dent in the corn and soy industries. Additionally, much of the biofuel market comes from used cooking oils, not from new oils.

Case in point. Disneyland in Anaheim has a fleet of beautiful and pristinely restored 19th century steam trains. The steam boiler uses diesel. Some time ago, they convreted their boilers to use biodiesel as well. This past year, they started using the cooking oils from all the park's restaurants to make their own biodiesel. So, now, when you take a trip on the Disneyland Railroad, you'll sometimes smell a faint hint of french fries. No kidding!

Okay, that was off topic a bit, I just thought it was a cool story

 

[shodan]

Not likely. The market for biofuel in the near future would barely put a dent in the corn and soy industries.

The market NOW takes much more than a dent out of corn production.
A quick look at a USDA graph on corn usage shows use for fuel of corn is more than double that for food, and approaching the same percentage as use for feed. Out of total corn usage, well more than one third goes to fuel.

 

[shodan]

Here is a sensible plan for food preparedness [whether or not the scenario pictured there comes to fruition--if it does then it is too late to plan]

http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/GMDPP.pdf

I farm. This growing season was exceptionally cool. Who knows what will happen next, but this year to give just one example--one big 'farmer' in the area had to disk under 3000 acres of corn that was no good...it did not mature and was molding in the field.

 

[Johnv]

The market NOW takes much more than a dent out of corn production.

And tha market is more than able to handle it.

 

[donnA]

Here is a sensible plan for food preparedness [whether or not the scenario pictured there comes to fruition--if it does then it is too late to plan]

http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/GMDPP.pdf

I farm. This growing season was exceptionally cool. Who knows what will happen next, but this year to give just one example--one big 'farmer' in the area had to disk under 3000 acres of corn that was no good...it did not mature and was molding in the field.

we saw crops fail to mature here also, we had a lot of spring rain last year, crops went out late, many never matured. On the other hand we saw a few people with spectular crops. Not many though.

 

[Johnv]

we saw crops fail to mature here also, we had a lot of spring rain last year, crops went out late, many never matured. On the other hand we saw a few people with spectular crops. Not many though.

Funny how the same weather affects different area here differently. It's been good here cropwise, but we have incredibly mild winters (mid 60's for the most part, and no freezing snaps). Our biggest local crops are citrus and strawberries, and they're more abundant than usual right now. And it's not even february!!

 

[shodan]

And tha market is more than able to handle it.

And of course, rich Americans are able to handle the inflated food costs. But the poor cannot.

 

[Johnv]

And of course, rich Americans are able to handle the inflated food costs. But the poor cannot.

Oh please!