It's not all Trump: What's really driving the stock market rally

[Crabtownboy]

It looks like the smart money set up the little guys again and is about to take more of their money.


Critics also worry that that stock prices have run up at a time when they were already looking overpriced relative to their earnings. One popular way to measure whether the stock market is expensive or not is to compare the S&P 500's level against its earnings over the prior 10 years, adjusted for inflation. By that measure, which was popularized by Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller, the S&P 500 is close to its most expensive level since the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2002.

It's not all Trump: What's really driving the stock market rally

Double bottom breakdown. Bad sign if you are long in stocks.

 

[InTheLight]

Did you read the article? Never mind, I know you didn't.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Crabtownboy]

Did you read the article? Never mind, I know you didn't.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

Yep, sure did. Then I checked the chart. Charts are not biased. When I was investing in the market I was a pure technical investor. I paid very little attention to articles and almost 100% attention to the charts. I found articles interesting, but not important in making decisions. I held off putting this chart on the BB until it broke down. That is a negative sign. It is too soon to give a downward price objective and it may not happen. But the signs are there and the likelihood of a downward market for the near term is more likely than an upward market. If I had individual stocks showing this chart pattern I would get out. Double bottoms are prone to whipsaw, but they are signs ... not as strong as some others, but still signs.

 

[InTheLight]

Thread Title: What's Really Driving the Stock Market?
Your Post: Chart allegedly showing stock market will turn bearish

Actual content of article: What's Really Driving the Stock Market?
Trump Bump
Stronger Economy
Higher Confidence
Improving Corporate Profits

One paragraph at end of article saying, (basically), "Be careful", which is what you quoted in your post.

 

[Crabtownboy]

Thread Title: What's Really Driving the Stock Market?
Your Post: Chart allegedly showing stock market will turn bearish

Actual content of article: What's Really Driving the Stock Market?
Trump Bump
Stronger Economy
Higher Confidence
Improving Corporate Profits

One paragraph at end of article saying, (basically), "Be careful", which is what you quoted in your post.

Yes, that is correct. To me the last paragraph is the most important paragraph in the article.

The Trump bump is over.

The strong economy has been taken in to consideration by the market. The high confidence is often a negative signal as the majority are almost always wrong concerning the market. It does indicate that people are buying, but that is different from the market. Confidence is never higher than just before a market bust. Consumer confidence has a very poor record at predicting the future market.

The improved corporate profits are not because of Trump. We will have to wait until the 3rd qtr. to see if Trump has had any positive or negative effect. To me corporate profits are a lagging indicator.

I would be extremely careful in buying into this market. There is pretty strong resistance at 20,300. The big "Katie bar the door" bear resistance line currently is at, 18,900.

 

[InTheLight]

Yes, that is correct. To me the last paragraph is the most important paragraph in the article.

The Trump bump is over.

The strong economy has been taken in to consideration by the market. The high confidence is often a negative signal as the majority are almost always wrong concerning the market. It does indicate that people are buying, but that is different from the market. Confidence is never higher than just before a market bust. Consumer confidence has a very poor record at predicting the future market.

The improved corporate profits are not because of Trump. We will have to wait until the 3rd qtr. to see if Trump has had any positive or negative effect. To me corporate profits are a lagging indicator.

I would be extremely careful in buying into this market. There is pretty strong resistance at 20,300. The big "Katie bar the door" bear resistance line currently is at, 18,900.

So you post an article about what is really driving the stock market, state you pay little attention to articles and then post several counterpoints to the article. OK.

 

[Use of Time]

So you post an article about what is really driving the stock market, state you pay little attention to articles and then post several counterpoints to the article. OK.

CTB is essentially the liberal version of Mitch.

 

[Crabtownboy]

CTB is essentially the liberal version of Mitch.

I am not sure what you are attempting to say with your post. But being successful or unsuccessful when investing in stocks and bonds has nothing to do with being conservative or liberal.

 

[Crabtownboy]

The Dow is down another square today. Still not a definitive signal, but looking stronger.

 

[Crabtownboy]

Correction, broke down two squares today and broke through another low. Not a good sign. If we do not get a bounce back to 20,550 it will be a bad sign that the market may be heading south for the foreseeable future. The relative strength is below 38. Usually the market turns before getting this low for a bit getting the relative strength back up to 70. I will be surprised if we do not get a bounce soon.