New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47

Excellent analysis and essentially where I'm at in the prediction game as of today. Ohio is the key.

 

A pertinent article on the polling madness:

http://kristensoltis.com/post/34833583238/unsolved-mysteries

 

Both are good points. I think they have a bearing, but:

Point 1) It's indisputable that Obama has charisma, but after four years he also has a record. Whereas his charm got him into office, people are looking also at his arguably unstellar performance. It's a liability for him.

Point 2) In 1980, to the best of my recollection, there was not the continuous comparison between Reagan and a previous Republican/conservative hero that we have seen with Romney's run. Reagan was Reagan, just as Romney is himself.

 

But Carter's record was arguably worse. And I think you give a vast swath of the American public too much credit - most people don't vote on records or ideas, but on personalities, skin color, and what makes them feel good - and all that helps Obama way more than it helped Carter.

True. Also, Romney's Mormonism I think has hurt him a little, but not as much as many expected.

 

I'll concede that the American voter is a shallow creature, but Carter didn't: a) have the boondoggle that is Obamacare and all that goes with it, and b) Carter wasn't socialistic in the way Obama is.

Though yes, Obama's a talker and that has some effect, I think people are starting to wake up to the consequences of the last four years and don't like the way another four looks under his leadership. At least I hope so.

 

I think that is an excellent anaylsis of the states. In the past, more liberal types have been for switching to election of the President by popular vote, and more conservative types for the electoral college. One wonders if that thinking would change if the EC hands Obama a victory without the popular vote.

One thing most people do not realize (and I am for the EC), is that states have the right to choose their method of choosing the electors. Just because they are chosen now by popular vote does not mean that is the model in the Constitution. A state could as easily pass a law that the state legislature chooses the electors.

The same thing goes with how the electors are awarded. In most states, all the EC votes go to the winner of the popular vote within that state. Two states award by Congressional district. A state could for example, do what California proposed and rejected, all EC votes go to the national popular vote winner. In fact, there is a movement now when so many states approve it, that a similar pattern will be followed. It almost makes the present system obsolete.

The only state I might disagree with you about is VA. I think Obama could capture it. Romney has FL, NC, IN, and probably CO. My state is one of the reddest in the nation. Obama will be lucky to pull 30%. In the Democratic Primary, he defeated undecided 49% to 47%.