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ollster Removes Extra Dems From Surveys, Makes Trump Discovery That Has Clinton Freaked

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Revmitchell, Aug 10, 2016.

  1. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member

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    General election match-up polling averages have showed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton crushing GOP candidate Donald Trump with a notable lead, but this is a false image.

    The problem is that most pollsters skew their results in favor of Clinton by oversampling Democrat voters. When this demographic data is corrected, however, the results look entirely different.

    Case in point: A pollster known as LongRoom used current demographic data from each state to effectively remove the bias from all current match-up polls. And once this bias was removed, guess what happened …


    http://conservativetribune.com/poll...tm_content=2016-08-10&utm_campaign=manualpost
     
  2. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member

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    Their methodology:
    The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state's Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state.

    Sounds reasonable, except for this year is like no other year. There are many, many self-identified Republicans that are NOT going to vote for Trump. So you can adjust the internal bias of the poll to actual registered Republicans, but it would be an inaccurate adjustment, at least for this year.

    Also, using this method, Trump's children would be considered Democrats (they were registered Democrats in New York at the time of the New York primary.) I'm sure there are millions of other people that registered with one party and haven't voted for that party in ages. Look at Louisiana. About 50% of its voters are registered Democrats; about 24% are registered Republicans. Louisiana has gone Republican every election since 1996.

    Also doesn't take into account the independents, at least I didn't see where they take them into account.

    I did notice according to this site that Fox News is one of the most biased towards Democrats than any other TV network polls.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. 777

    777 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, this one is interesting as well, but there are such limits to party registration translating into votes for a party candidate - this year, in particular, it is all going to depend on the turnout. In this state, you don't declare a party affiliation but you can only vote in one of the two primaries.
     
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