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Polling Errors

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Gold Dragon, Nov 12, 2008.

  1. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    Many folks here were challenging polling data. Rasmussen Reports has a nice page to compare its final poll numbers with the actual voting percentages in each state.

    I've compiled a list of states where the poll results was greater than 3% off from the actual result. This is usually the stated error in their polls. I've grouped them together by which direction the error went for or against the candidates.

    States McCain polled higher than actual result
    Idaho
    Rhode Island
    Vermont

    States McCain polled lower than actual result
    Alabama
    Alaska
    Arkansas
    West Virginia
    Wyoming

    States Obama polled higher than actual results
    Alaska
    Arkansas
    Wyoming

    States Obama polled lower than actual results
    Conneticut
    Delaware
    Hawaii
    Idaho
    Indiana
    Michigan
    Nebraska
    Nevada
    New York
    North Dakota
    Rhode Island
    Vermont
    Washington
    Wisconsin
     
  2. LadyEagle

    LadyEagle <b>Moderator</b> <img src =/israel.gif>

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    Thanks for posting the info. But it really doesn't matter because the electoral college will cast enough votes for him, no matter how close the margins were in the popular vote. That's the way it works.
     
  3. JustChristian

    JustChristian New Member

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    it looks like the polls were biased against Obama. He got more votes than the polls in a much larger number of states than did McCain including New York, Michigan and other larger states with more electoral votes.
     
  4. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    The percentages in each state are what determines the electoral college votes, which is what these polls were looking at.

    They also compared the popular vote poll as well and they were right on the dot with that one.

    For those who were challenging polls because they didn't like what they saw, it looks like there were very few states where McCain's numbers were being underestimated and very many states where Obama's numbers were being underestimated.
     
    #4 Gold Dragon, Nov 12, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2008
  5. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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