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Tariffs and Trade Wars and Trump....

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Calminian, Mar 2, 2018.

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  1. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    I admire Gary Cohn for quitting because he disagreed. If we are going to war in the next three months or so, we will need a lot of industrial capacity up and running. The defense industry seems to be in overtime. Both Russia and China back North Korea, and many of the Korean weapon systems seem to be Russian surplus. We need the steel industry to rebuild our military quickly.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. Reynolds

    Reynolds Well-Known Member
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    Lets look at China and Japan in particular. Both hold about 1.3 Trillion each in U.S. Debt. That gives each pretty strong negotiating power with us. An instant dump that size would be very hurtful to our economy. It would not be catastrophic, but it would be painful. Now, imagine the number at 3, 4, 5, or six trillion, which is where its headed, as soon as China overcomes its economic hiccup. We would literally be a servant to the lender.
     
  3. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    But how do you get to the best team if you're not willing to fire anyone? That's exactly how Trump has always ended up with the best. You can't do that if you don't fire those who are not quite the best.

    So this critique is totally lost on me.
     
  4. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Predictions predictions predictions. Will any of your predictions every come true?

    I find it interesting that you think it's harmful for the US to impose tariffs, yet the Europeans are now also planning to do it. If it's bad for us, why isn't it bad for them? Why are they planning their own tariffs if they will result in higher prices for their people?

    Trump's point has always been, tariffs are sometimes necessary. If we are being treated unfairly, they can benefit us. Clearly, even Europeans agree with this, as they are responding with tariffs thinking they're being treated unfairly. But won't this also result in higher prices for them? So why don't they take your advise and abstain?

    The truth is, it's all about negotiation. That's essentially what these threats from Europe are about. They also want to put themselves in a good global position so they're now negotiating with their own tariffs.

    What your candidates have done, is the opposite of them. They take all negotiation leverage off the table and fear any conflict. That's why other countries laugh at us.
     
  5. Reynolds

    Reynolds Well-Known Member
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    While he is firing, I hope he fires AG Sessions.
     
  6. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    What kind of negotiating power? They bought US Treasuries with specific maturation dates that pay a specific interest rate. That is what they bought. Do you think they are going to say something like, "If you attack North Korea's missile silos we'll dump your US treasuries?"

    If they were to demand massive early payments on debt, do you think US citizens would continue to buy their exports? It would be financial suicide for these countries to demand early repayment of massive amounts of debt securities. Furthermore, we wouldn't have to cash them out. This would essentially be a run on our national bank. We could simply say "no". Other countries would not think the US was defaulting on their debts, rather they would see China as the provocateur. This could even be considered an act of war.

    Please give me a scenario where China and/or Japan would blackmail the US with turning in massive amounts of debts for payment.

    This sort of a scenario is something that sounds ominous but wouldn't happen in real life.
     
  7. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    He would if he could. It's not prudent to do so right now, and give Rosenstein full reign. It would take forever to get a replacement in. But if Trump can't replace now, he'll at least deliver a few swift kicks.

    Sessions is feeling the heat. :Thumbsup My guess is, he's going to do some good things soon. He appears to be acting on both both California's immigration crimes and the Obama Admin's spying crimes.

    …SESSIONS COMPARES TO THE CONFEDERACY: ‘THERE IS NO NULLIFICATION. THERE IS NO SECESSION’…


    …EXCLUSIVE: AG WILL ‘CONSIDER’ SPECIAL COUNSEL FOR OBAMA ADMIN POLITICAL SPYING…
     
  8. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Therefore, who should continue to be debtor nation. This is how the left thinks.
     
  9. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Across the board tariffs on a specific industry is picking winners and losers. In the case of steel and aluminum, the losers would be Canada, Mexico, Brazil, etc. NOT China.

    They are planning tariffs as a retaliation against Trump's imposition of tariffs on them.

    Not benefit "us", but benefit a narrow band of industries within the sphere of those tariffs. That minority of people benefit, the rest of us, not so much

    I don't know why they do what they do. They are planning on targeting specific US products like orange juice, Harley Davidson motorcycles, peanut butter, cranberries, and other things. Specific products. Their people can probably get along just fine without Harley Davidson motorcycles or Florida orange juice. But the US cannot get along just fine with more expensive steel, more expensive lumber.

    Tell me, why do you adopt the trade policies of Bernie Sanders? Why do you adopt the trade policies of liberal Democrats? They are protectionists. They are the ones in bed with the unions. The unions are the ones that want tariff protection. So why do you favor it?

    Did you notice the president of Mexico called Trump's bluff recently and canceled a White House meeting with him? Just decided he didn't want to deal with the "stable genius." Other countries are likely to call his bluff as well.

    "My candidates". For the umpteenth time, I supported Marco Rubio and then Ted Cruz in the 2016 elections.
     
  10. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    That's not at all what I said and you know it. I stated reasons why China would not demand early repayment of their debt.
     
  11. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    But would you also agree that government subsidies are picking winners and losers? If so, why are you okay with this, and why are against retaliation from our side?

    If you really are against governments picking winners and losers, then you should support Trump in this efforts to stop foreign nations from picking winners through subsidies, making it impossible for non-subsidized domestic businesses to compete. You should support his effort to stop all efforts by foreign nations to cheat with slave and child labor. You should be against the picking of winners and losers period, and support efforts to end it.

    But it seems the only retaliations you defend are those foreign governments retaliating against the US.
     
    #51 Calminian, Mar 7, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2018
  12. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    <Sigh> Where did I say I was OK with government subsidies? Really, you've got to quit ascribing beliefs to others and then attack them for it. We are not the ones retaliating with tariffs, if Trump imposes the steel tariffs we would be the ones instigating a trade war.

    I'm for free trade. That's it. Foreign governments are sovereign nations and can do what they want. If we are truly being hurt by a particular nation's trade policy, by all means attempt to do something about it.

    However, in this whole discussion no one has actually shown that the steel industry is being harmed by foreign nations trade policies. All we've heard is "TRADE IMBALANCE BAD! MUST FIGHT BACK." I showed in another thread that US steel companies are doing just fine. So prove that the steel companies are being harmed by other countries policies and not just being affected by market forces.

    Sure, that's a clear cut example of how the US can use trade policy to bring about social changes. I guess we should put tariffs on iPhones then, huh?

    No. I don't want any retaliations and I don't want any trade wars.
     
  13. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Wow! so you whole argument is, the steel industry in America is doing just fine and doesn't need any help. Foreign subsidies are not hurting it. Foreign immoral labor practices are not hurting it. It's just doing great. Wow. Just wow. You really have no understanding of anything.

    Meanwhile,

    WINNING: U.S. STEEL TO CALL BACK 500 EMPLOYEES TO ILLINOIS PLANT AFTER TRUMP UNVEILS TARIFFS
     
  14. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    I showed that the two largest steel companies were showing profits and their stock prices were on an increasing upward trend.

    NuCor-Stock.jpg

    US-Steel-Stock.jpg



    It's your turn to show that the steel industry is being hurt by the trade policies of foreign nations. Go ahead and make your case.


    That's nice. What if Trump backs down?
     
  15. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    According to you, nothing with happen if Trump backs down. According to you the Steel industry is thriving in America and needs no help at all. Thus, this company re-hiring is just a big coincidence. It would have happened anyway because other countries picking winners and losers is very good for America. :eek:

    Indeed, no steel jobs have been lost and there is no decline in the Steel industry in America since the 70s. How can I possibly defend such strong argument?
     
  16. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Here's an article on the Steel Industry written last year before Trump took up the issue. Sure seems to contradict ITL's argument that it is thriving in America and has never been better.

    The crisis facing the U.S. steel industry
    By Thomas J. Gibson and Chuck Schmitt

    Updated 11:31 PM ET, Wed March 23, 2016

    A surge in unfairly traded imports hurts the U.S. steel industry, Thomas J. Gibson and Chuck Schmitt say.
    Story highlights
    • If steel industry is to survive, U.S. must act to reduce global overcapacity, authors say
    • American companies that play by the rules can't win at rigged game, they say

    Thomas J. Gibson is president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute. Chuck Schmitt is president of SSAB Americas and chairman of the American Iron and Steel Institute'sboard of directors. The views expressed are their own.

    (CNN)As the backbone of American manufacturing, the steel industry is essential to the world's water and food supply, energy generation and national security. The U.S. military uses steel extensively, ranging from aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines to missiles, armor plate for tanks and every major military aircraft in production. There are a lot of reasons to take pride in American steel.

    But today, our steel industry is being hurt by an unprecedented surge in unfairly traded imports, with record amounts of foreign-produced steel flooding into the United States. Cheap, subsidized foreign imports are taking steel jobs away.
    In 2015, almost one in three tons of steel sold in the United States was produced outside the country. The import crisis is now beginning to get the national attention it deserves. The crisis has become the topic of presidential debates, candidate interviews and stump speeches. And it's about time.


    [​IMG]

    Thomas J. Gibson
    Steel supports hundreds of thousands of American jobs. But because of these unfairly traded imports, many American steel producers have had to make difficult decisions affecting steelmaking communities. Steel companies have closed down major facilities, or reduced production at those plants, resulting in devastating layoffs and job losses for many families who have made steel for generations. More than 12,000 steel jobs have been lost in the past year, as imports took a record 29% of the U.S. market.
    At the same time, U.S. steel production has continued to decline. Domestic shipments for 2015 stood at nearly 87 million tons, a nearly 12% decrease over what American steel mills shipped in 2014.
    [​IMG]

    Chuck Schmitt
    Many presidential candidates are realizing that global overcapacity of steel -- in part due to massive subsidization by foreign governments -- is a huge problem and a chief contributor to the crisis the American steel industry faces. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development estimatesthat there are about 700 million metric tons of excess steel capacity globally today.
    China's government-owned and -supported steel industry represents almost half of the world's steelmaking and more than half of the world's overcapacity. Between 2000 and 2014, Chinese steel production increased a whopping 540%, while U.S. production declined 13%. As has been said by one steel company CEO in testimonybefore the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the Chinese government is a company disguised as a country.
    The Chinese government recently set a goal to cut steel excess capacity by between about 100 million metric tons and 150 million metric tons over a five-year period, but it failed to specify how it proposes to achieve these reductions. Meanwhile, a representative of the Chinese steel industry recently conceded that China must reduce its government-owned steel overcapacity by around 400 million metric tons if it is to address the problems caused by past Chinese government industrial policies, according to Reuters. And it must make these reforms now, before further damage is caused, both in China and around the world.
    China is not the only source of the surge in steel imports into the United States. Other major offshore suppliers of steel have seen substantial increases in their volumes of exports to the U.S. market in recent years, including South Korea and Turkey. With the rising tide of cheap imports entering the U.S. market from these and other countries, capacity utilization at domestic mills dropped to as low as 60% in early January, an unsustainable level for a capital-intensive steel producer.
    If America's steel industry is to survive, the United States must take action to reduce global overcapacity by working to remove subsidized production from the world supply so basic market forces can once again determine outcomes. We must begin this effort by ensuring that our trade laws are aggressively enforced.
    Congress recently passed legislation to improve enforcement at our borders to try to catch those who evade tariffs by deliberately mislabeling where the steel comes from, in addition to other clever tricks that are undermining the American steel industry. Worse still, some of our trading partners manipulate their currency to make their exports to the United States even cheaper. American companies that play by the rules can't win at this rigged game.
    Domestic steel producers are already seeking some relief by filing trade cases with the Commerce Department and the International Trade Commission on all the major flat-rolled steel products, including corrosion-resistant steel, hot-rolled steel and cold-rolled steel. Congress gave the Commerce Department new tools last summer when it enacted legislation that made improvements to the trade remedy laws, and now it is critical that the department aggressively use them.
    It is also critical that the Obama administration resist China's demand to be designated a market economy by the end of 2016 -- which would severely weaken the effectiveness of existing trade laws -- until China fully reforms its government-controlled economy.
    Just last week, the steel and aluminum industries joined together with other manufacturers from the textile, fabric, fiber and resin industries to form the Manufacturers for Trade Enforcementcoalition to raise awareness on the concerns about China's market economy status.
    Ultimately, this is a critical time for the American steel industry. For 150 years, the steel industry has played a central and indispensable role in building this nation. It now needs and deserves the support of Congress and the administration, including the next president of the United States, to survive and thrive for our country's future.​
     
  17. Reynolds

    Reynolds Well-Known Member
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    It very much could and would happen in real life.you might be shocked at how insignificant early surrender is on T bills( 0% penalty). A dump would no doubt hurt the nation that dumped the treasuries, but it would not hurt them near as badly as it would hurt us.
     
  18. Reynolds

    Reynolds Well-Known Member
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    His (Sessions)address today in California reminded me of my first grader learning to read.
     
  19. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    It could be attempted in real life. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be seen by the world community as a nefarious act and no one would blame the US for not redeeming all the T-bills turned in.

    What scenario do you see that would be so important to China that they would take such an action?
     
  20. Calminian

    Calminian Well-Known Member
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    Love him or hate him, it shouldn't matter. All should agree with the below.

    [​IMG]Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
    From Bush 1 to present, our Country has lost more than 55,000 factories, 6,000,000 manufacturing jobs and accumulated Trade Deficits of more than 12 Trillion Dollars. Last year we had a Trade Deficit of almost 800 Billion Dollars. Bad Policies & Leadership. Must WIN again! #MAGA

    3:40 AM - 7 Mar 2018​
     
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