U.S. Recession Officially Began In Dec. 2007

[Crabtownboy]

The U.S. economic downturn, widely called a recession since late September when the nation's financial system went into crisis, has been officially declared a recession -- which began in December 2007.

The declaration was made by the National Bureau of Economic Research on Friday, and announced today.

In pegging December as the start of the recession, the NBER -- a private group -- said the last expansion lasted 73 months. The prior recession ran from March to November, 2001. The expansion of the 1990s ran for a record 120 months.

http://www.courant.com/business/hcu-recession-1201,0,6693820.story

If you have not read on this the White House acknowledged this is true and tried to put a good face on it by saying something like we are working on correcting this.

 

[Mexdeaf]

"When it began" and "what caused it" are not necessarily linked in time. It was a long time coming and it just happened to hit on Bush's watch.

 

[Crabtownboy]

"When it began" and "what caused it" are not necessarily linked in time. It was a long time coming and it just happened to hit on Bush's watch.

Please, you mean it is Hoover's fault? :laugh:

 

[Mexdeaf]

Nope, I blame Congress. Presidents have 0, zip, zilch, nada to do with the economy, but they get the praise if it happens to go well and the blame if it doesn't.

 

[LeBuick]

"When it began" and "what caused it" are not necessarily linked in time. It was a long time coming and it just happened to hit on Bush's watch.

We'll have to remember this quote in case any negative events happen on Obama's watch. He has already received credit when the market dropped but not when it went up so I suspect we'll need this argument in the future... :thumbs:

 

[KenH]

Nope, I blame Congress.

The Republicans pretty much ran the Congress from January 1995 until January 2007.

 

[targus]

"Although many people consider a recession to be two consecutive quarters of declines in overall economic activity -- the gross domestic product"

To my knowledge this has always been the only definition of a recession.

Does anyone know if we have had two consecutive quarters of decline in the GDP?


"NBER looks at many factors to determine when recessions begin and end. Personal income, jobs, industrial production and wholesale and retail sales are all part of the mix."

So has the NBER published their definition of a recession before deciding that we are in one?

Or is it a more fluid sort of thing?

Of what purpose is it to have economic terms with non-specific definers?

 

[Martin]

Since we seem to be placing blame I would like to place plenty of blame on the media. They have worked hard, and continue to work hard, to scare people into not spending money.

 

[KenH]

You really think that husband Joe and wife Jane when deciding whether to go out to a restaurant to eat on Friday night are going to listen to the evening news and say, "Well, the anchor man/woman said times are hard. Get the balogna and bread for tonight. Forget about going to Ryan's to eat"?

 

[Martin]

You really think that husband Joe and wife Jane when deciding whether to go out to a restaurant to eat on Friday night are going to listen to the evening news and say, "Well, the anchor man/woman said times are hard. Get the balogna and bread for tonight. Forget about going to Ryan's to eat"?

==Not over one news report. However the effect of 24 hour news constantly telling people how bad things are and how afraid they should be does have an affect on people.

 

[LeBuick]

"NBER looks at many factors to determine when recessions begin and end. Personal income, jobs, industrial production and wholesale and retail sales are all part of the mix."

So has the NBER published their definition of a recession before deciding that we are in one?

Or is it a more fluid sort of thing?

Of what purpose is it to have economic terms with non-specific definers?

Looks like they used a broader brush than you have and considered many non-static factors before coming to this conclusion. I think the news here, there is only one group in the nation who can officially declare a recession. They have thrown up the flag so a recession we have.

http://wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.

Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.

 

[Mexdeaf]

Since we seem to be placing blame I would like to place plenty of blame on the media. They have worked hard, and continue to work hard, to scare people into not spending money.

Yup, them too!

 

[Mexdeaf]

The Republicans pretty much ran the Congress from January 1995 until January 2007.

I believe that the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in 2006, just in time to take the blame for the recession which began in 2007. :laugh:

We could go round and round about whose fault it is.

How about this- maybe it is God's fault? Isn't He in control anyway? Maybe it's time we looked at things from His perspective rather than a political one. I don't care how charismatic a leader you have- if God doesn't want it (recovery) to happen it won't.

 

[KenH]

I believe that the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in 2006

Actually, 2007 in the month of January. You said this economic downturn was a long time in coming. So are you saying that 11 months is your definition of a "long time"?

 

[billwald]

Still say there are two economies in the US. One for the people who borrow money and one for the people who loan money. One can increase while the other decreases. The official economy is the loaner economy. There was no recession while the banks were raising interest rates on mortgages and credit cards. The recession was recognized when loaners ran out of money to loan.

 

[carpro]

The U.S. economic downturn, widely called a recession since late September when the nation's financial system went into crisis, has been officially declared a recession -- which began in December 2007.

:laugh:

The recession got off to a really bad start if no one noticed we were in one til now.

 

[Crabtownboy]

:laugh:

The recession got off to a really bad start if no one noticed we were in one til now.

If you look back you will find that some economists were saying we had entered a recession and that the Bush administration denied it was happening.

The beginning of recessions is always noted at some point after they are in progress. Indeed sometimes the recession ended before it was announced. Not ture this time. This one is going to last a while.

 

[carpro]

If you look back you will find that some economists were saying we had entered a recession and that the Bush administration denied it was happening.

Show me.

 

[Crabtownboy]

Show me.

Well here are a few of many articles on this.

Bush denies U.S. economy in recession

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/22/news/economy/bush_recession/index.htm

The Dollar Loses More Value While Bush Denies Recession

http://banks.com/blogs/fed/2008/03/01/the-dollar-loses-more-value-while-bush-denies-recession/

Bush denies U.S. economy in recession

http://current.com/items/88914419/bush_denies_u_s_economy_in_recession.htm

Even as late as this November Bush was denying we were in a recession.

Bush: Economy is in Slowdown, Not Recession

http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cach...sh+denies+recession&hl=cs&ct=clnk&cd=19&gl=cz

I guess that's enough.

 

[carpro]

Well here are a few of many articles on this.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/22/news/economy/bush_recession/index.htm


http://banks.com/blogs/fed/2008/03/01/the-dollar-loses-more-value-while-bush-denies-recession/


http://current.com/items/88914419/bush_denies_u_s_economy_in_recession.htm

Even as late as this November Bush was denying we were in a recession.


http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cach...sh+denies+recession&hl=cs&ct=clnk&cd=19&gl=cz

I guess that's enough.

Hardly a consensus and there are always...always gloom and doom predictors amongst economists. And none of your sources go back to 2007.

The truth is that the recession, at lest up to this point, has been so mild that regular people had no idea they were in one.