I have no secret data and can only say what I am hearing and what I think I am seeing.... yet like all economic issues, this could be just speculation.
Personally, I think our economy is doing worse than is known or being reported. This is probably closer to this time in 2008 where we knew there were some problems, but found out there were much bigger problems. Here is my rationale.
1. Bernanke's interview yesterday was disturbing. He stated he didn't know what was causing the problems. This either means he knows and can't say, or there is something more underneath the economy that is driving the horrendous economy.
2. The Dem's are mumbling over the need for another stimulus. This has been considered a toxic topic politically, I suspect they may see something more troublesome on the horizon.
3. Economic predictions are based upon the past and how our economy worked in the past. Many economic articles I have read have economists admitting that this is a very different economic scenario than in the past. This baffles me because this is never explained. Granted, with the international scene entirely unstable, this could be what they mean but it seemed to be a domestic issue.
4. Despite our very weak dollar, our exports are not doing well. Normally, a weak dollar produces more exports. Yet, our very weak dollar is not helping our exports very much.
5. Productivity is levelling out as production is declining. The rule of thumb cited the last 6 months to a year was that while America was becoming more productive, once productivity levelled out hiring would pick back up. Rather, productivity has levelled out and employment is not improving at all. This is a worrisome sign. If anything, there seems to be another round of layoffs coming. Thus, optimism this year at a rebound in jobs does not seem to exist.
6. Debt, Debt, Debt, and Debt. Enough said
7. Default, Default, Default, Default. Enough said.
