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Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right

Discussion in 'News & Current Events' started by Revmitchell, Jul 9, 2020.

  1. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

    Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right
     
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  2. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Well-Known Member

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    Biden is promising to raise taxes by a significant amount, make companies pay.

    The Obama / Biden team sent thousands of our manufacturing businesses overseas because of high taxes & regulations.

    The last candidate who promised to raise taxes was Walter Mondale (Dem). He lost 49 states. His home state, land of Jesse Ventura and Al Franken, held its nose and voted for him.

    When he raises taxes on corporations the consumer will pay them in higher prices. Not rocket science.

    And then the VP problem, Biden has said he might die in his first term and wont run for another. So you got to think maybe he might even resign and turn over the job to his VP pick...likely a black progressive socialist woman who favors BLM and ANTIFA and defunding the police. A person Biden would have picked to help him with certain kinds of voters.
     
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  3. MartyF

    MartyF Well-Known Member

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    Just remember, in the U.S., only one poll matters.
     
  4. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    Nothing about a poll in this thread
     
  5. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    I am willing to go out on a limb here and predict that one of the Duopoly candidates will win the Electoral College in the 2020 presidential election.
     
  6. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    Libertarians should nominate Trump since they don't seem to have a candidate but Libertarians like to squander money tilting at windmills so they will find some quixotic loser to nominate in another pointless wealthy display of improvident extravagance.
     
  7. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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  8. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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  9. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    You do understand that elections are about more than just who can be first past the post, right? Thinking that they are does great damage to our democratic republic. Elections are supposed to be about ideas, not just rooting for one of two teams like an NFL game.
     
  10. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    Is that written in stone that you have to make a big bonfire out of cash to attract attention every four years? Since you don't want to nominate Trump, why don't you just vote for Biden since he may represent Libertarian social values?
     
  11. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    Libertarians spend a pittance of the money that the Duopoly candidates spend.
     
    #11 KenH, Jul 9, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2020
  12. church mouse guy

    church mouse guy Well-Known Member
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    No, it's not my money so Libertarians can burn all of their money that they want on lost causes. But they cannot claim fiscal prudence with their extravagance, can they? Libertarians stand for economic frugality and moral liberality to the best of my knowledge--a view already represented by country club Republicans. Libertarians seems to range widely from somewhat conservative to ultra liberal. The vices that Libertarians want to legalize and so ignore are all but legal anyway. For example, drugs are widespread in the country today and people are dying like flies from it already. And prostitution is so widespread that antifa uses it as a fundraiser even the trafficking of children from Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America. Congress has reported that a long list of American corporations such as Coke, Nike, and Heinz are using child or slave labor in China and elsewhere but I don't know if Libertarians approve of overseas slave labor sending goods and services into the USA or not? On the issue of gambling, it has become widely legal and state governments are even running cheap lotteries to bilk their own citizens with meager prizes and big kickbacks to the usual political hack suspects. For example, the Indiana lottery advertising budget is a kickback to the Hoosier media and so on with the printing, distribution, banking, and bureaucrat employees on the gravy train of the state government numbers racket. So I don't see that Libertarians are spending their time and money on any particular platform that does not already exist in reality.
     
  13. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    If you are truly concerned about all of the money being spent in politics, then I suggest you rail against the billions that the Duopoly spends.
     
  14. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    Your remark is WAY off the mark. Example: I am opposed to fornication but I don't want to make it illegal. Not wanting to making it illegal does not mean I ignore it. What are you suggesting? That unless one wants to make fornication illegal that one is ignoring it? Do you want to make fornication illegal or are you ignoring it, too?
     
  15. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    Libertarians consistently supports economic freedom and individual rights, something neither part of the Duopoly does.
     
  16. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Well-Known Member

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    I am looking forward to the future with Christ, and He wont put up with any sinful behaviors. So perhaps a theocracy type of government will be here. And fornicators will not be inheritors of the kingdom.
    Someday, Christ will rule the nations with a rod of iron. I take that to mean he will dash his enemies to pieces and they will be no more. And if you believe there will be nations while he is ruling on this earth during the millennium, if you believe that, maybe some who will be born will still be His enemies, cause until we get new heavens and a new earth, the devil is still out there deceiving the nations, (except for that millennial reign where he gets locked up, but afterwards is released from the pit to deceive the nations again for a time).

    For the moment we live in an evil age and evil times with the whole world under the sway of the evil one (satan). The lie of the world is things are getting better and better over time, for proof that is a lie, look at all the wars and suffering of people all over the world. Things are getting worse and worse out there for many with a few exceptions, but for all who do not know the Lord, even if they prosper they are evil because they refuse to heed God's call to repent and believe in His Son..
     
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  17. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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    When Christ returns this present heavens and earth will be replaced by the new heavens and earth.
     
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  18. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Well-Known Member

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    so your an amillennial?
    Amillennialism - Wikipedia.
    Some are and some are not.

    Amillenarism or Amillennialism (from Latin mille, one thousand; "a" being a negation prefix) is a type of chillegorism which teaches that there will be no millennial reign of the righteous on earth. Amillennarists interpret the thousand years symbolically to refer either to a temporary bliss of souls in heaven before the general resurrection, or to the infinite bliss of the righteous after the general resurrection.[1]

    This view in Christian eschatology does not hold that Jesus Christ will physically reign on the earth for exactly 1,000 years. This view contrasts with some postmillennial interpretations and with premillennial interpretations of chapter 20 of the Book of Revelation.

    The amillennial view regards the "thousand years" mentioned in Revelation 20 as a symbolic number, not as a literal description; amillennialists hold that the millennium has already begun and is identical with the current church age. Amillennialism holds that while Christ's reign during the millennium is spiritual in nature, at the end of the church age, Christ will return in final judgment and establish a permanent reign in the new heaven and new earth.

    Many proponents dislike the term "amillennialism" because it emphasizes their differences with premillennialism rather than their beliefs about the millennium. "Amillennial" was actually coined in a pejorative way by those who hold premillennial views. Some proponents also prefer alternate names such as nunc-millennialism (that is, now-millennialism) or realized millennialism, although these other names have achieved only limited acceptance and usage.[2]
     
  19. KenH

    KenH Well-Known Member

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  20. Scott Downey

    Scott Downey Well-Known Member

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    I have a problem with the mention here in Wikipedia, about Satan already bound so as he can not actively deceive the unsaved.
    Amillennialism also teaches that the binding of Satan, described in Revelation, has already occurred; he has been prevented from "deceiving the nations" by the spread of the gospel.[citation needed] Nonetheless, good and evil will remain mixed in strength throughout history and even in the church, according to the amillennial understanding of the Parable of the Wheat and Tares.

    For example Paul says this,
    2 Timothy 2:25-26 New King James Version (NKJV)
    25 in humility correcting those who are in opposition, if God perhaps will grant them repentance, so that they may know the truth, 26 and that they may come to their senses and escape the snare of the devil, having been taken captive by him to do his will.

    Which shows the devil to be an active deceiver during the church age and also while the gospel is being preached . So there are problems with the doctrine.
     
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