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Two Epidemiologists Debate Our Response to SARS-CoV-2

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Aaron, Mar 30, 2020.

  1. Aaron

    Aaron Member
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    COVID-19 | Munk Debates

    This is a debate you should listen to for its factual information on the Coronavirus and the exaggerations of its overall threat and lethality. One epidemiologist is a liberal, the other is more conservative, and they don't disagree on the facts.

    They disagree on policy, and in predictions. The Yale guy will say a blind panic nationwide lockdown for months is justified until we know more, the Stanford guy says we know enough to know that blind, long-term lockdowns are not justified and may in the long-term cause more problems than the virus. The Yale guy will say he believes that the lethality of the Coronavirus will be "five to seven to ten times" that of the Flu. The Stanford guy says not enough data yet, but if it is more lethal than the Flu, then more realistically it will be by a factor 1.5 to 2.

    The Yale guy takes the opportunity to plug Green theology and politics and jab the administration (and with one or two debunked assertions), while the Stanford guy is saying pandemic unpreparedness is more a result of the public apathy at large.

    A couple noteworthy quotes here:

    "The number of people infected is much larger than the number of cases we have documented....In most places with few exceptions around the world we are just testing people who have substantial symptoms who come to healthcare and seek help or even to be hospitalized.​

    "These are just the tip of the iceberg. The Iceland experience [where a complete assessment was done and shows a mortality rate lower than that of the common Flu] and all our other data from Vo in Italy where the entire city population was tested showed that the vast majority of people [who are infected] are either completely asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic in ways that you would not be able to differentiate from Common Cold or Common Flu."​

    Also...

    "Influenza, for example, kills many, many children. We don't really see deaths in children less than ten years old [with SARS-CoV-2], and we see extremely few severe cases in young individuals in the absence of underlying disease, while we do see it quite a lot with Influezna."​
     
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  2. RighteousnessTemperance&

    RighteousnessTemperance& Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the link and lucid summary. Very helpful. :Thumbsup :Thumbsup
     
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  3. RighteousnessTemperance&

    RighteousnessTemperance& Well-Known Member

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    They agreed that extensive testing now would be the best route to understand what we are really dealing with where so that the best decisions can be made regarding the next move. But did they explain why we cannot do such testing, other than to say we don't have kits?

    Neither of them addressed the main underlying problem, namely the extreme reliance on foreign manufacturing of medical equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals, and that the reliance is mostly on Communist China. Had we the manufacturing infrastructure, we would be far more likely to be able to gear up quickly to meet demand in such a situation, rather than commandeering and converting other industries.
     
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  4. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    Anyone that is still comparing this virus to the typical flu is quite ignorant and any "authority" still repeating this ignorance is an incompetent moron!
     
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  5. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
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  6. Aaron

    Aaron Member
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    It's a valid comparison. Symptoms, duration, susceptibility, longevity etc., are much the same. It's all very Flu-like. What else are you going to compare it too?

    It's a different virus. It doesn't kill as many children as the Flu. Those are some differences.
     
  7. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    Focusing on the mortality rate of covid19 is a distraction.

    Seasonal influenza hospitalizes around 1% of confirmed cases. Covid 19 hospitalizes around 20% of confirmed cases. Yes if the health system is not overwhelmed, most of that 20% will survive, 5% with an ICU stay and some of those with a ventilator, although once you hit the ventilator the odds of survival drop to around 50%.

    Also every case of influenza infects around 1.3 other cases. Every case of covid19 infects 2.5 confirmed cases. If you count asymptomatic people you are looking at around 3-4 people.

    Covid 19 is way more infectious than the seasonal flu and causes way more strain on the hospital system than the seasonal flu. The world is going to lose a large chunk of its ICU, emergency and critical care staff and countries that have been slow to recognize the seriousness of covid19 will lose a lot more.

    Anyone who is still comparing covid19 to the seasonal flu is just out of touch with reality.
     
    #7 Gold Dragon, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
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  8. Aaron

    Aaron Member
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    The number is exaggerated. It is not based on complete testing, but testing done only on those who have symptoms and have sought help.

    The Flu number is based on more complete testing.

    You didn't listen to the experts.
     
  9. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    20% of confirmed cases.

    Those not tested are not included in confirmed cases. There are lots of unconfirmed influenza cases every year too.

    You need to compare apples to apples.
     
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  10. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    Yep comparing covid 19 to influenza doesnt match the lefties agenda.
     
  11. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    My agenda is keeping people alive.
     
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  12. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    Coming on an internet board with your rabid attitude is not going to keep anyone alive. And its for that reason I doubt your sincerity. You and that other fella.
     
  13. alexander284

    alexander284 Well-Known Member

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    Uh oh. You're displaying a "rabid attitude!" LOL
     
  14. alexander284

    alexander284 Well-Known Member

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    Well, no one doubts YOUR sincerity. Your worship of your idol, Trump, is definitely genuine and sincere. No doubt about that! LOL
     
  15. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    I'll go on another "rabid" tirade for a minute.

    These critical care nurses and doctors have spent decades training to get where they are. Ventilators, masks and PPE can be replaced in months. Replacing the experience and expertise of critical care staff takes decades.

    The US will be losing some of its best medical professionals because too many people in leadership and in the general public thought this virus was "no big deal", despite what the medical professionals are telling them.

    I haven't posted here in a long time because frankly I'm not interested in the circular arguments that go on here. But covid19 is life and death. And I don't want my brother's and sisters in Christ and my family members living in the US (some of whom work in hospitals and others who are elderly), or any human being for that matter, dying because of lack of information or misinformation.
     
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  16. Use of Time

    Use of Time Well-Known Member
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    He’s provided interesting and useful information without any attitude. All you have provided are barbs and distractions which is shameful of a man claiming to be a pastor. Nothing in this thread warranted your response and that hostility.
     
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  17. Use of Time

    Use of Time Well-Known Member
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    I’m going to file this in the “stupidest thing I’ll read today” box.

    I’m sure Mitch will support this partisan hack statement with his own scientific analysis.

    Spoiler alert: Never going to happen.
     
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  18. Use of Time

    Use of Time Well-Known Member
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    Keep doing it. Right now your posts and Benjamin’s are the most informative regarding COVID and are always a good read. Mostly because they are divorced from politics. Those focused on politics are showing what their true priorities are.
     
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  19. Gold Dragon

    Gold Dragon Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking with Trump and even Fox News getting in line with the right public health messaging over the last few days that my reality doses were not so necessary. Then this thread came up rehashing old arguments again. What is it going to take?

    When misinformation about Covid19 stops showing up here and folks get on with the business of working together to save lives through social distancing (which is Trump's plan too), you will see me disappear again from this forum.
     
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  20. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    You think too much of yourself, your posts, and the impact of what is said on this forum. Further more you are not a reliable source. You are more about fear and panic then you are reasonable consideration. Your left wing politics has been obvious. Really it just looks like you are more about criticism of conservatives wrapped up in feigned worry about how anyone views it all.

    Good luck with that.
     
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