Chinese Tiangong Satellite crashing

[liafailrock]

As I type this at the time of this post, the satellite is bucketing DUE EAST over the NY state area which means due east it will be over central Africa shortly since it's in that direction. The prediction is for Sunday April 1 to crash. Link to follow the trail: TIANGONG-1 Reenter - Decay Predictions + ONLINE 3D REAL TIME TRACKING

 

[kyredneck]

Didn't last time this happened China blew the wayward satellite to smitherines with a missle? Resulted in a lot of 'space junk/debris' flying around up there...

 

[InTheLight]

Didn't last time this happened China blew the wayward satellite to smitherines with a missle? Resulted in a lot of 'space junk/debris' flying around up there...

Very doubtful China has an anti-missile defense capability and even if it did, hitting a benign falling object (one not with the heat signature of a rocket to home in on) makes it virtually impossible.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Baptist Believer]

Didn't last time this happened China blew the wayward satellite to smitherines with a missle? Resulted in a lot of 'space junk/debris' flying around up there...

Yes, in January 2007, they destroyed an old weather satellite of theirs with a missile, creating an enormous amounts of debris hazards which can damage other spacecraft and satellites for years to come.

That action earned international rebuke, so I doubt anyone wants them to do that again. Letting their space station reenter the atmosphere is much more preferable.

 

[kyredneck]

Very doubtful China has an anti-missile defense capability

...if I remember the incident that BB is referring to correctly, China did so to show the world that they indeed did have this capability, which also resulted in all the dangerous space trash...

 

[liafailrock]

Probably no need to shoot it down. It will break apart anyway. Since I posted, it made one orbit already and soon will be traveling due east between Africa and Australia in the southern hemisphere. That is the direction back to the USA again. As the earth rotates, the path will have its nodes (crossing of the equator) at different longitude lines so that others have a chance at being hit. It's not the same path.

 

[kyredneck]

Probably no need to shoot it down. It will break apart anyway. Since I posted, it made one orbit already and soon will be traveling due east between Africa and Australia in the southern hemisphere. That is the direction back to the USA again. As the earth rotates, the path will have its nodes (crossing of the equator) at different longitude lines so that others have a chance at being hit. It's not the same path.

Lol, learn something almost everyday. Had to research "gnomonist". I can see where this event captures your interest.

 

[InTheLight]

Yes, in January 2007, they destroyed an old weather satellite of theirs with a missile, creating an enormous amounts of debris hazards which can damage other spacecraft and satellites for years to come.

Wow. I did not know that. Was this confirmed by western governments?

That action earned international rebuke, so I doubt anyone wants them to do that again. Letting their space station reenter the atmosphere is much more preferable.

Well, there is a 2 out of 3 chance it will hit water.

 

[Baptist Believer]

Wow. I did not know that. Was this confirmed by western governments?

Yes, it is public knowledge.

 

[kyredneck]

Lol, this hillbilly knew about it...

 

[Deacon]

Let’s make this thread more interesting

Pick the date (without going over) and the location

The winner gets the BB secret bonus prize

I’ll pick this Wednesday and the southern Pacific Ocean.

Rob

 

[Baptist Believer]

April 1st, Arizona

 

[Reformed]

Let’s make this thread more interesting

Pick the date (without going over) and the location

The winner gets the BB secret bonus prize

I’ll pick this Wednesday and the southern Pacific Ocean.

Rob

Next Tuesday and it will hit 430 South Capitol St SE #3, Washington, DC 20003.

 

[Rob_BW]

Paraguay on the 2nd.

 

[liafailrock]

Let’s make this thread more interesting

Pick the date (without going over) and the location

The winner gets the BB secret bonus prize

I’ll pick this Wednesday and the southern Pacific Ocean.

Rob

Wow, yes I know this is all in fun, but realistically is difficult if we were serious about this. The orbital inclination is about 42 degrees, so that means anywhere between 42S and 42N latitude. I guess the next step is to figure its decaying orbit rate, and rate of velocity increase and so forth. For the time being I'm going to simply "guess" how many more orbits and then where it will be at in its orbit during the time of my guess. This will still be fun! LOL

 

[liafailrock]

OK......... here's my prediction. Sunday night (EDT) south Pacific just west of South America. I'll get a little more precise by saying about 35S latitude.

 

[liafailrock]

Well, it's Sunday night and I thought this thing would crash by now. The trough of the orbital path is over that area I predicted, although the satellite is near to China. In a little bit it will be over my predicted area but I don't think it will crash just yet. Oh, well, I made my prediction and will stick to it. May get it several more times around.

 

[Reynolds]

Wow. I did not know that. Was this confirmed by western governments?



Well, there is a 2 out of 3 chance it will hit water.

Yes, definitely confirmed. As a side note, Russia was furious because the space junk put some of their military satellites at risk.

 

[kyredneck]

Tiangong-1 crash: Chinese space station comes down in Pacific Ocean

 

[liafailrock]

My prediction was not far off, but frankly, I expected it to fall a little closer to South America. Maybe it did because the link I show has it "between" Australia and South America at the entry point and who knows how far it skimmed along? Keep in mind even the experts are not sure of the exact place. It's just the general location. The reentry point is stated as 24 degrees south (I said 35) and 150 degrees west. It is "sort of" west but although south America and Australia also lie on the same latitude does not indicate it's the true path between them. That's the latitude rhumb line (for a Mercator map). Australia is more or less south-west of South America somewhat toward Antarctica.