The Biggest Threat of the Coronavirus

Yes, although unfortunately all we to compare with is other flu viruses that are most likely to also be under similar stats of people who were not tested. I know there have been times when I've seen people in the family be sick of the same flu disease and one might be sick for 2 weeks and another 24-48 hours and back on their feet. Personally. I've have little doubt that I've had some pretty bad flu bugs but never got tested for anything.

 

I don't know what's going on in Italy but it is the largest sample that we have to go by, if you exclude China, and I'm just not liking the numbers I see so far.

On a positive note, it appears that the countries that have seriously shut down social gatherings are showing some low spreads. Even China, if you believe anything that comes out of there is getting some credit for progress against the spread but they were in serious lock down.

Lock down is about the only defense we have at this point and I think should be taken more serious and implemented.

 

Watching Italy.

March 10th: In Italy, 10,000 have contracted the disease and 631 people have died. That is 6.31%

March 12th: In Italy, just 2 days after the numbers above 15,113 have contracted this disease and 1,016 have died. That is 6.72%.

March 13th: In Italy, 17,000 have contracted the disease and 1,266 have died. That is 7.4% death rate.

 

March 15th: In Italy, 24,700 confirmed cases and 1,800 deaths. That is maintaining a 7.2 death rate.

4 Hours Ago: "Italy on Sunday reported its biggest one-day increase in cases and deaths throughout the coronavirus outbreak.

Italy recorded 3,590 cases and 398 deaths in a 24 hour period,..."

This is not looking good! I was hoping to see a decrease, this was not expected.

 

The global death rate is 5.7% --that's 57 times higher than the season flu.

John Hopkins has said that when 1 million Americans get infected 50,000 will die.

NY city has 8 million people, with an estimated 2.5 million infected.

As of now 59 Americans have died from COVID-19. But by April 4th the same number could die on that single day.

 

I do not believe there is any legitimate estimate anywhere near 2.5m being infected in NY. If we were to have that many within the entire country during this epidemic we would be in SERIOUS trouble!

 

In New York City there is a high density of people per square mile. In a tightly compacted area such as that, it would be reasonable to assume that at least 25% of those 8 million would be infected.

Within two months hospitals might collapse. They won't be able to handle the extreme volume.

 

Factor into your reasoning that "Only" 81,000 cases in all of China and I believe we are much better prepared. A prediction of 2.5m case in one state does not add up to what we are seeing around the world.

 

Watching Italy.

March 10th: In Italy, 10,000 have contracted the disease and 631 people have died. That is 6.31%

March 12th: In Italy, just 2 days after the numbers above 15,113 have contracted this disease and 1,016 have died. That is 6.72%.

March 13th: In Italy, 17,000 have contracted the disease and 1,266 have died. That is 7.4% death rate.

March 15th: In Italy, 24,700 confirmed cases and 1,800 deaths. That is maintaining a 7.2 death rate.

March 18th: 31,506 have been infected and there are 2,503 deaths. The death rate has climbed to 7.9%.

 

You are not so naive to believe the Chinese numbers; are you? The regime has consistently lied from its inception. I tutor a Chinese woman who says that all the time. Plus, I lived there for five years. The real numbers are considerably more.

 

He's 650 years late. The Black Death of the 14th Century killed around a third of the population of Europe.

Wars, famines, plagues etc. are not necessarily signs of the end of the age. "See to it that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass but the end is not yet" (Matthew 24:6). What they are is warnings, to which mankind should be responding by turning back to God. Read Amos 4:6-12.

 

Or more correctly : They are warnings. ;-0

 

So in reference to 1/4 of the population in NY, 2 1/2 million people, are you saying China can distort the numbers enough to conceal 1/4 of their 1 1/2 billion population contracting this disease? How about 1 million infections, do you think they could even conceal that? No, I don't think one can justify a prediction of 2.5 million infects in NY and can go so far as to completely overlook what we see in China regardless of their attempts to cover up the real numbers.

 

Benjamin, I think that far more than 1 million have been infected in Wuhan alone. For all of China millions more. Merkel said that 10 million in her country may be infected presently. So no, predicting that more than 2 million have been infected in NYC is perfectly in line with the rate this thing is going.

 

Rip, I certainly hope and pray that prediction is way off. On a national level 1/4 of the population is 82,750,662 and at a mortality rate of 3.5% (1/2 of that currently in Italy) would mean 2,896,273 deaths in the U.S. in a matter of months.

Further, 3.5% of 2 1/2 million is 87,500 deaths in NYC alone.

 

Watching Italy.

March 10th: In Italy, 10,000 have contracted the disease and 631 people have died. That is 6.31%

March 12th: In Italy, just 2 days after the numbers above 15,113 have contracted this disease and 1,016 have died. That is 6.72%.

March 13th: In Italy, 17,000 have contracted the disease and 1,266 have died. That is 7.4% death rate.

March 15th: In Italy, 24,700 confirmed cases and 1,800 deaths. That is maintaining a 7.2 death rate.

March 18th: 31,506 have been infected and there are 2,503 deaths. The death rate has climbed to 7.9%.

March 20th: 41,035 confirmed cases and there are 3,405 deaths. The death rate has now climbed to 8.2%.

Horrible! No sign of letting up.

 

Watching Italy.

March 10th: In Italy, 10,000 have contracted the disease and 631 people have died. That is 6.31%

March 12th: In Italy, just 2 days after the numbers above 15,113 have contracted this disease and 1,016 have died. That is 6.72%.

March 13th: In Italy, 17,000 have contracted the disease and 1,266 have died. That is 7.4% death rate.

March 15th: In Italy, 24,700 confirmed cases and 1,800 deaths. That is maintaining a 7.2 death rate.

March 18th: 31,506 have been infected and there are 2,503 deaths. The death rate has climbed to 7.9%.

March 20th: 41,035 confirmed cases and there are 3,405 deaths. The death rate has now climbed to 8.2%.

March 21st: 47,021 confirmed cases and there are 4,032 deaths. The death rate is still climbing, now to 8.6%.

 

USA numbers from CDC
It is not just old people needing hospital and ICU
Exponential curve

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm#T1_down

Total 2,449 needing hospitalization
Hospitalization 20.7–31.4%
ICU 4.9–11.5%
Case Fatality 1.8–3.4%

 

Pandemics, plagues, disease show us that we are mortal.

Psalm 90 King James Version (KJV)
1 Lord, thou hast been our dwelling place in all generations.
2 Before the mountains were brought forth, or ever thou hadst formed the earth and the world, even from everlasting to everlasting, thou art God.
3 Thou turnest man to destruction; and sayest, Return, ye children of men.
4 For a thousand years in thy sight are but as yesterday when it is past, and as a watch in the night.
5 Thou carriest them away as with a flood; they are as a sleep: in the morning they are like grass which groweth up.
6 In the morning it flourisheth, and groweth up; in the evening it is cut down, and withereth.
7 For we are consumed by thine anger, and by thy wrath are we troubled.
8 Thou hast set our iniquities before thee, our secret sins in the light of thy countenance.
9 For all our days are passed away in thy wrath: we spend our years as a tale that is told.

10 The days of our years are threescore years and ten; and if by reason of strength they be fourscore years, yet is their strength labour and sorrow; for it is soon cut off, and we fly away.

11 Who knoweth the power of thine anger? even according to thy fear, so is thy wrath.

12 So teach us to number our days, that we may apply our hearts unto wisdom.

 

Yet, despite all that, we believers have promises like these:

" He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty.
2 I will say of the Lord, [He is] my refuge and my fortress: My God; in him will I trust.
3 Surely he shall deliver thee from the snare of the fowler, [and] from the noisome pestilence.
4 He shall cover thee with his feathers, and under his wings shalt thou trust: his truth [shall be thy] shield and buckler.
5 Thou shalt not be afraid for the terror by night; [nor] for the arrow [that] flieth by day;
6 [nor] for the pestilence [that] walketh in darkness; [nor] for the destruction [that] wasteth at noonday.
7 A thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand; [but] it shall not come nigh thee.

8 Only with thine eyes shalt thou behold and see the reward of the wicked.
9 Because thou hast made the Lord, [which is] my refuge, [even] the most High, thy habitation;
10 there shall no evil befall thee, neither shall any plague come nigh thy dwelling.
11 For he shall give his angels charge over thee, to keep thee in all thy ways.
12 They shall bear thee up in [their] hands, lest thou dash thy foot against a stone.
13 Thou shalt tread upon the lion and adder: the young lion and the dragon shalt thou trample under feet.

14 Because he hath set his love upon me, therefore will I deliver him: I will set him on high, because he hath known my name.
15 He shall call upon me, and I will answer him: I [will be] with him in trouble; I will deliver him, and honour him.
16 With long life will I satisfy him, and shew him my salvation. " ( Psalms 91 ).